Small Package, Fed’s Dot Plot, No-Deal Brexit Recession: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Welcome to Friday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to take you through to the weekend:

• The European Central Bank’s chief economist said there’s room to cut interest rates further and described a stimulus offering that split policy makers as “not such a big package”
• France’s latest draft budget marks a shift that strains public finances and gives the economy a boost as the outlook darkens
• A no-deal Brexit in the U.K. will most likely result in a recession next year, above-target inflation and interest-rate cuts by the Bank of England, according to Bloomberg Economics
  • U.K. consumer confidence held up better than expected this month in the face of fresh political turmoil over Brexit, according to a survey
• The Federal Reserve’s “dot plot” of interest-rate projections shows plenty of disagreement over the future course of U.S. interest rates -- but Chairman Jerome Powell still won’t have much trouble corralling his colleagues into another cut if that’s what he wants
• Executives from the biggest U.S. financial firms are meeting with regulators in Beijing, a sign the trade war has done little to derail China’s opening of its $43 trillion financial system
• Income inequality in America widened “significantly” last year, a U.S. Census Bureau report finds
• What worked to raise China’s prosperity yesterday no longer works as well today -- and the country needs a new approach, Chang Shu writes. Here’s why this year’s National Day means so much to China
• Presidential candidate Alberto Fernandez indicated he would tackle Argentina’s debt problem by adopting a strategy similar to that of Uruguay, which successfully extended its bond maturities in 2003
• One advantage of President Donald Trump’s pursuit of bilateral trade talks like his limited agreement with Japan is that any deals won’t have to run Washington’s legislative gauntlet

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael S. Arnold in Singapore at marnold48@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Karthikeyan Sundaram, Michael S. Arnold

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