U.S., France Hold Talks on Russia Forces Buildup: Ukraine Update

(Bloomberg) -- With U.S. Army reinforcements deploying in Poland and Germany, President Joe Biden and his French counterpart Emmanuel Macron talked by phone about responding to Russia’s military buildup on the Ukrainian border, according to the White House. Macron is due to visit Moscow and Kyiv this week.

Ukraine’s defense minister said the probability of an escalation by Russia looks low, while an official close to President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said the West should specify potential sanctions. 

Moscow has repeatedly denied that it plans to attack Ukraine, while the U.K. and U.S. say Russia has massed almost 130,000 troops close to the border. Russia has decried the use of NATO forces near its borders. 

Key Developments

• Putin’s Financial Fortress Blunts Impact of Threatened Sanctions
• Putin Courts China’s Xi for Help in Showdown With the West
• Ukraine May Help Shore Up Its Market With Debt Buybacks
• What we know so far about potential U.S.-EU sanctions on Russia
• Where military forces are assembling around Russia and Ukraine

All times CET

Biden, Macron Hold Phone Call (10:19 p.m.)

U.S. President Joe Biden and French President Emmanuel Macron talked by phone on Sunday about how to deal with the standoff over Ukraine. The two leaders last spoke on Wednesday. 

Biden and Macron “discussed ongoing diplomatic and deterrence efforts in response to Russia’s continued military build-up on Ukraine’s borders, and affirmed their support for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity,” the White House said in a statement. 

U.S., France Discuss Strengthening NATO’s Flank (8:10 p.m.)

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and French Foreign Minister Jean-Yves Le Drian on Sunday discussed joint efforts to strengthen NATO’s eastern flank and to ensure that Russia “understands the high costs it would incur if it were to invade Ukraine further,” State Department spokesman Ned Price said.

Macron and Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, whose country is a NATO member that borders Russia, held a call to coordinate on Ukraine, according to Estonia’s government. Estonia and France have a shared view of the danger of the situation, and Russia must take concrete steps to reduce tension, according to the readout. 

Kallas welcomed efforts in the so-called Normandy talks involving Russia, Ukraine, Germany and France, which are “important to put pressure on Russia to abandon its military threat through diplomacy.”

Ukraine Official Suggests Proactive Sanctions (6:06 p.m.) 

A senior Ukrainian official says the West should outline a package of potential sanctions against Russia now if they consider the threat of escalation to be real. 

European nations have been cautious about using sanctions as a deterrent to a potential Russian incursion into Ukraine that Moscow has repeatedly denied. 

Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to President Vlodymyr Zelenskiy’s chief of staff, told Bloomberg News that “sanctions to deter Russia are already needed,” and that support for Ukraine’s “economic stability” should go hand-in-hand with military aid and active diplomacy. 

U.S. Warns Nord Stream 2 Is on the Line (3:55 p.m.) 

U.S. National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan expressed confidence that the Nord Stream 2 pipeline will never begin pumping natural gas from Russia to Germany should Russian forces invade Ukraine. 

“We will follow through on the clear and definitive statement we have made as the Biden administration -- one way or the other, if Russia invades Ukraine, Nord Stream 2 will not move forward,” Sullivan said on “Fox News Sunday.” 

Sullivan reiterated on NBC’s “Meet the Press” that an incursion would lead to “the imposition of severe economic consequences,” while declining to describe any military action by President Vladimir Putin as imminent. Russia has denied that it plans to attack its neighbor. 

Ukraine Ministry Downplays Escalation Prospects (3:06 p.m.) 

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksiy Reznikov said Sunday that “the probability of a significant escalation” by Russia “continues to be assessed as low.” Ukrainian intelligence is monitoring movements of Russian personnel along the shared border, in Belarus and Crimea, and in separatist-controlled areas, he said in a statement posted on the ministry’s website. 

“There is an intense exchange of information with international partners,” Reznikov said. “At the moment, everything is happening within the framework of our estimates.”

Ukrainian soldiers are now training on equipment sent by Western allies, Reznikov said. 

German Chancellor Under Pressure to Take Stand on Russia (7 a.m.)

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who heads to Washington Sunday for a meeting with President Joe Biden, is under increasing pressure to take a stand on Russia over its military buildup near Ukraine. 

The extent of Scholz’s duress was made clear last week when a German newspaper wrote a headline, “Where is Scholz?” that questioned the chancellor’s engagement with the tensions over Russia’s military buildup on Ukraine’s border.

Scholz has stuck so far to talking points, namely that all options to impose retaliatory sanctions against Russia are on the table, but shipping weapons to help Ukraine defend itself are off. 

Russian Official Calls U.S. Intelligence Assessments ‘Scaremongering’  (4 a.m.)

Ambassador Dmitry Polyanskiy, the deputy at the Russian Mission to the United Nations, said U.S. military and intelligence estimates on the impact of any potential Russian invasion of Ukraine are “madness and scaremongering.” 

Polyanskiy responded on Twitter to a tweet on a lengthy Washington Post story that cited recent assessments to U.S. lawmakers and European allies that as many as 50,000 civilians would be killed and 5 million displaced in the event of a large-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine. 

Macron Seeks to Ease Tensions in Putin Meeting (12:00 a.m.)

French President Emmanuel Macron plans to discuss de-escalating the situation in Ukraine with Vladimir Putin during a trip to Moscow on Monday.

“We have to be very realistic,” Macron told Le Journal du Dimanche newspaper. “We’re not going to get unilateral gestures, but it’s essential to avoid a deterioration of the situation before building reciprocal mechanisms and gestures of trust.”

Macron said Russia’s geopolitical goal was “to clarify the rules of cohabitation with NATO and the EU.”

U.S. Army Task Force Sets Up in Germany (6:26 p.m.)

About 300 newly deployed U.S. service members arrived in Germany and set up a joint task force within 24 hours of getting the call, according to an Army statement on Saturday. The forces from the 18th Airborne Corps out of Fort Bragg, North Carolina, were sent to Wiesbaden, near Frankfurt.

Army Major General Christopher Donahue, the commander of the 82nd Airborne Division, has arrived in Poland, where the Pentagon has said it’s deploying components of an infantry brigade combat team.

The Pentagon said last week that the deployments are “not permanent” and designed to bolster the defenses of NATO allies. Biden has said the U.S. has “no intention” of moving U.S. soldiers into Ukraine.

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