Record Treasury Sales, U.K. Budget, China's Growth Pain: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Good morning, Americas. Here’s the latest news from Bloomberg Economics to help kick off your week:

• U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin is set to snatch from Timothy Geithner the mantle of selling a record amount of notes and bonds as he seeks to finance America’s growing budget deficit.
• U.K. Chancellor Philip Hammond will deliver his own budget today, but it could need rewriting within months if Brexit talks collapse. He said Sunday that Britain may need another emergency budget and prolonged austerity in the event of a no-deal Brexit.
  • Still, while Hammond’s stance on Brexit has made him a minister with many political enemies, he may find the bond market a less fearsome foe.
• The U.K.’s other big event this week is the Bank of England’s Inflation Report on Thursday. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg predict officials may have to cut growth forecasts for the next two years, even without taking into account the latest impasse in Brexit negotiations.
• A report on euro area growth Tuesday may underline the scale of the pullback in the region since 2017’s boom. Meanwhile, here’s a look at how the European Central Bank’s view of the economy tallies with the real-world experience of thousands of companies.
• Growth in China continued to slow in October, a period in which the trade conflict with the U.S. intensified. China’s state-sponsored push to dominate technologies of the future is looming as one of the biggest stumbling blocks to prospects for a resolution with the Americans
• The IMF forecasts the global economy will expand at an annual rate of 3.7 percent through 2020, before decelerating to 3.6 percent in 2021-2023, and should pass the $100 trillion mark around 2022. Here’s a breakdown of where growth is expected to come from.
• Last week wasn’t a good one for the Fed. Tom Orlik surveys the ebbs and flows of its independence, while here’s Mohamed A. El-Erian’s take on why central banks are no longer cushioning markets.
  • On a similar theme, here’s five reasons behind the growing rift between India’s central bank and the government
• The Bank of Japan will maintain its policy settings this week, according to a Bloomberg survey, amid a growing view that it will eventually use greater flexibility in yield movements as a tightening measure
• Finally. here’s a look at how Agustin Carstens is changing the way the Bank for International Settlements doles out advice to the world’s monetary chiefs.

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Joanna Ossinger

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.