Recession in 9 Months, Fed's Confab, Australia Wobbles: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Monday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• A recession could begin in nine months if President Donald Trump pushes to impose 25% tariffs on additional $300 billion of Chinese imports and China retaliates, Morgan Stanley says. Meanwhile, the impact of Trump’s tariff hike on Chinese imports is beginning to ripple through supply chains
• Fed officials might have good reason to pat themselves on the back when they gather in Chicago this week -- instead, they’ll be taking a second look at everything they do. Here’s why the Fed’s rethinking its toolkit
• China’s government says it’s willing to work with the U.S. to end an escalating trade war but blames Trump’s administration for the collapse in talks
• The world’s most enduring growth story is beginning to wobble
• Central banks may soon be back saving the world economy beset by an escalating trade war
• Trump contradicted two of his top aides, saying Sunday that “companies and jobs” returning to the U.S. would be a key outcome from his decision to impose import tariffs on goods coming from Mexico
• Philip Lane is starting his first week as the ECB’s top economist -- and it’s a big one
• Indian investors already facing a much-anticipated central bank decision this week will now have to juggle the implications of an economic soft patch and Donald Trump making good on his trade threat against the nation

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Chris Bourke

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