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Palm Oil Suffers Reversal on Outlook for Higher Malaysian Output

Palm oil futures in Malaysia reversed earlier gains to a record to close lower for the first time in four days.

Palm Oil Suffers Reversal on Outlook for Higher Malaysian Output
Palm oil fruit kernels sit on the ground at a palm oil mill in Pahang, Malaysia. (Photographer: Sanjit Das/Bloomberg)

Palm oil futures in Malaysia reversed earlier gains to a record to close lower for the first time in four days, depressed by prospects of increased production this month in second-biggest grower Malaysia.

Expectations are now for output to be 3% to 4% higher in October from a month earlier, said Marcello Cultrera, an institutional sales manager and broker at Phillip Futures in Kuala Lumpur. Meanwhile, demand is running 10%-14% lower than in September, and the biggest importers such as India and China are fully covered for November and partially for December, he said.

Malaysian palm oil exports fell 14% in the first 20 days of October from a month earlier, according to cargo surveyor SGS Malaysia on Thursday, with shipments to India and China tumbling 18% and 28% respectively.

A retreat in petroleum prices from seven-year highs and a decline in soybean oil also weighed on futures. In a day of wild swings, the most active January contract jumped as much as 2.9% to 5,220 ringgit a ton, before closing 2.1% lower at 4,966 ringgit. The market is still heavily backwardated.

Palm Oil Suffers Reversal on Outlook for Higher Malaysian Output
Drivers
Prices
  • Palm for January delivery on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives rises as much as 2.9% to 5,220 ringgit/ton, before closing 2.1% lower at 4,966 ringgit
  • Soybean oil for December in Chicago drops 1.1% to 64c/lb
  • Palm for February on Asia Pacific Exchange in Singapore loses 1.9% to $1,278.25/ton
  • Refined palm oil for January on Dalian Commodity Exchange +0.2% to 9,830 yuan/ton
  • Soybean oil for January +0.1% to 10,128 yuan/ton
  • Soybean oil’s premium over palm ~$217/ton vs avg of ~$231 in past year: data compiled by Bloomberg
  • Palm’s premium over gasoil ~$463/ton vs avg of ~$408 in past year: data compiled by Bloomberg

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