People gather to look up at an electronic screen showing television coverage at the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE) in Mumbai. (Photographer: Vivek Prakash/Bloomberg)

Oil Relief Positive, But India’s Achilles’ Heel Is Earnings Growth: BNP Paribas

The cool off in crude oil prices is a positive surprise but the Achilles’ heel for Indian stocks has been earnings growth, according to Manishi Raychaudhuri, equity strategist (Asia-Pacific) at BNP Paribas.

Raychaudhuri said the second-quarter earnings have been borderline disappointing with fewer companies beating analyst estimates.

“We have seen a reflection of this in the earnings estimates. Over past three months the consensus EPS estimate for both fiscal year 2019 and 2020 have declined by about 7 percent or so— that’s pretty sharp.”

It’s the most important variable the foreign investors are watching, he said, adding it needs to catch up with the developed market peers.

“A foreign investor—who reduced his position in India by almost 1.5-2 percentage points last year—will be in a wait and watch mood. He would only make small adjustments to his India portfolio for now.”

Sectors To Watch Out For

  • Correction in stocks of both passenger vehicles and four-wheeler makers selectively provide entry opportunity.
  • Positive on private sector banks, consumer-lending non-banking finance companies.
  • Bullish on large-cap IT companies for a medium-term outlook.

Watch the full conversation here: