New Kind of Recession Threat, Small-Business Doubts: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Good morning Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• The U.S. is facing up to a new kind of recession threat, one that’s neither home-grown nor household-led
• U.S. small-business sentiment fell to near the lowest level of Donald Trump’s presidency, as tariffs and economic uncertainty increasingly weigh on the outlook for owners across the country
• China signaled it would hit back after the Trump administration placed eight of the country’s technology giants on a blacklist over alleged human rights violations against Muslim minorities. Asked Tuesday whether China would retaliate over the blacklist, foreign ministry spokesman Geng Shuang told reporters “stay tuned”
• Trump’s tweets on trade have had a sometimes-sizable impact on market expectations for Federal Reserve policy, while his posts criticizing the Fed have had little impact, according to a Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysis
• Italy’s economic outlook is growing dimmer, adding pressure on the government to deliver on its tricky promise of an expansionary budget while setting aside billions to avoid a planned increase in sales-tax
• German industrial production unexpectedly improved in August after two months of decline, a development that will do little to alleviate concerns about intensifying trade tensions and waning business confidence
• U.K. Chancellor Sajid Javid made his pay rise for low earners the centerpiece of his policy plans last week. In reality, the increase might not be as glitzy as it seems and small firms warn it could lead to job losses
• Ireland is battening down the financial hatches because of concern the U.K. will crash out of the European Union without a deal and damage one of Western Europe’s fastest-growing economies

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss

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