Lagarde Takes the Lead as Central Banks Come to Fore
Christine Lagarde is set to deliver her first major speech as European Central Bank president on Friday.
(Bloomberg) -- Explore what’s moving the global economy in the new season of the Stephanomics podcast. Subscribe via Apple Podcast, Spotify or Pocket Cast.
Central bankers in the U.S. and Europe will come under the microscope this week, giving traders an insight into their policy plans going into 2020.
Christine Lagarde is set to deliver her first major speech as European Central Bank president on Friday, with investors on the lookout for clues of her policy initiatives and communication style. That comes a day after the ECB releases accounts of the final meeting under her predecessor Mario Draghi, when the Governing Council was recovering from an unprecedented spat.
Meanwhile, the U.S. Federal Reserve will publish minutes from the October meeting that saw it cut rates and signal its easing plans were now on hold. With progress on the first stage of a potential U.S.-China trade deal shifting on a near-daily basis, parts of any outlook contained in the release may be outdated, meaning speeches from Fed officials may give more relevant policy signals.
“The biggest challenge for both Lagarde and Powell is not economic, it’s political. For Lagarde, with ECB firepower all but exhausted, the job is to convince euro zone finance ministers to open their wallets. For Powell, it’s dodging presidential tweets and hoping for a trade truce. With growth holding up, both have a moment to marshal their forces.”
--Tom Orlik, chief economists, Bloomberg Economics
Here’s what happened last week and below is our weekly wrap of what’s going on in the world economy in the coming days:
The U.S. and Canada
It’s the last full week before the Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S., so in addition to October’s minutes, there’s also a final rush of Fed speeches before officials leave for vacation and a quiet period proceeding the final meeting of the year. Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, New York Fed President John Williams and Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari are all due to speak in a week that otherwise sees few major economics data releases.
As trade negotiations rumble on, Wednesday also sees the latest Democratic debate, which could generate more news on how candidates view the economy and trade.
In Canada, the focus is on remarks from Bank of Canada Governor Stephen Poloz and his top deputy Carolyn Wilkins, while inflation and retail sales data are also due.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the U.S.
Europe, Middle East and Africa
Lagarde’s speech is just one of a number of appearances from ECB policy makers, with Luis de Guindos, Philip Lane, Yves Mersch and Jens Weidmann all scheduled to speak. Financial stability reviews from the ECB and the Bundesbank are also due, while flash purchasing management index surveys may be scoured for clues that the euro area is emerging from a soft patch.
U.K. house-price data will be released on Monday, before focus shifts to a public finance report Thursday. The latter will be the last such release during the campaign for the Dec. 12 election, which has seen both sides promise a fiscal splurge to attract voters.
Also on Thursday, South Africa’s central bank is expected to hold its benchmark rate for a second consecutive meeting as a deterioration in government finances and continued policy uncertainty push up the sovereign-risk premium. Meanwhile, Russia’s central bank chief will face questions from parliament on Wednesday on why she’s not moving faster to cut rates amid sputtering economic growth.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics full Week Ahead for the EMEA
Asia
Indonesia’s central bank meets Thursday and is expected to hold rates steady, while Australia’s central bank on Tuesday will release minutes of its latest meeting, as speculation grows it’ll need to keep easing as the labor market softens. Inflation data from Japan on Friday will be closely watched to see how prices fared with the increase in the sales tax.
The week also sees Bloomberg co-host the second New Economy Forum in Beijing. Kicking off on Wednesday, the event will hear from a raft of speakers, including former Treasury Secretary Hank Paulson.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia
Latin America
Peru reports third-quarter growth data on Thursday, which is expected to show the economy accelerated but not as fast as policy makers would like. The nation’s central bank unexpectedly cut borrowing costs earlier this month as it downgraded its growth forecast for the year amid sluggish investment levels.
Chile Economic Growth
Meanwhile, political social and political unrest is continuing to shake the region, with the epicenters in Chile and Bolivia. The former is due to release its latest growth data on Monday.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America
--With assistance from Rene Vollgraaff, Craig Stirling, Malcolm Scott, Margaret Collins and Theophilos Argitis.
To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Simon Kennedy at skennedy4@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss, Craig Stirling
©2019 Bloomberg L.P.