Istanbul Retail Prices Rise, Signal Faster Turkey Inflation

Price increases accelerated the most in more than a year in Turkey’s commercial capital in October, signaling a worsening in nationwide inflation as the currency’s slump feeds into the domestic market.

Retail prices in Istanbul rose 2.45% from the previous month, according to an index published by the Istanbul Chamber of Commerce on Sunday. That was the highest monthly gain since August 2019.

The Turkish lira weakened 7.5% against the dollar in October, marking the worst performance among emerging market currencies tracked by Bloomberg. In its latest quarterly report on inflation, the central bank warned that the impact of the depreciation on prices may be amplified “in case the interaction between exchange rates, expectations and inflation strengthens.”

“Given the high figures in all categories, it would be a big surprise if national inflation’s month-on-month pace is announced below 2%,” said Ozlem Derici Sengul, founding partner of Istanbul-based Spinn Consulting.

The statistics office will publish nationwide inflation data for October on Nov. 3. Consumer prices are expected to accelerate 12% from the previous year and 2.15% from September, according to the median estimates in a Bloomberg survey of analysts. Inflation was measured at 11.75% in September.

Key Insights

  • Istanbul retail prices rose 12.4% from a year earlier -- up from 11.66% in September.
  • Price increases were led by a 5.31% month-on-month surge in clothing and a 3.66% rise in food
  • Wholesale prices rose 4.38% from the previous month in raw materials, 3.8% in food and 2.2% in energy

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