Investors Seeking Clues Get Fresh Global Insight: Economy Week

(Bloomberg) -- Investors worried about the wobbliness of the world economy will get a swathe of insights this week that will allow them to better assess the outlook for global growth and monetary policy amid the escalating trade war.

In the U.S., Federal Reserve officials are going quiet ahead of their June 18-19 meeting, but the government will be churning out key reports. Those on consumer prices, retail sales and industrial production will be key to expectations on how soon the Fed might cut interest rates. The University of Michigan survey on Friday will show how much the trade war is weighing on household sentiment.

Over in China, trade numbers due Monday, inflation on Wednesday and industrial production, investment and retail sales on Friday will reveal the health of the world’s second largest economy.

And in the euro area, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi speaks on Wednesday and other colleagues appear throughout the week after signaling last week that they have discussed easing monetary policy.

Finance chiefs from the world’s largest economies gathered in Fukuoka, Japan, warned that escalating trade and geopolitical tensions pose the biggest risk to global growth. This week’s flood of news will help investors gauge just how worried they should be.

Here’s our weekly rundown of key economic events:

U.S.

Investors need to wait until the late in the week for the biggest data to roll in. Core consumer-price inflation is forecast to stay at 2.1%, though the broader rate may fall, according to the median forecasts in Bloomberg surveys of economists. On Friday, the Commerce Department is set to report a 0.7% rise in retail sales. Industrial production may have picked up after declining in April. The University of Michigan report, also due Friday, is seen weakening.

“Rising wage pressures amid labor scarcity will push inflation higher, but a strong dollar and falling energy prices will mute the pass-through of labor inflation into consumer prices,” said Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at Bloomberg Economics.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the U.S.

Asia

China is set to show pressure from the trade war, with exports down 3.8% in May from a year earlier. Bloomberg Economics says that industrial output growth likely eased, but retail sales may have rebounded after April’s worst performance since October 1999.

With Australia’s central bank back in easing mode, Thursday’s jobs numbers will be closely watched. Any weakness will make a follow-up interest-rate cut next month more likely.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia

Europe, Middle East and Africa

As well as the ECB speakers, the Swiss National Bank sets monetary policy on Thursday as the global slowdown, central bank talk and investor jitters put them in a spot of bother again. The franc is strengthening and is near its highest in almost two years, putting downward pressure on inflation. With the key interest rate still at a record low, the SNB has to decide whether to just repeat its usual message or go further to try to pull the currency back. After raising interest rates in December, the Riksbank could this week see an end to its tightening plans as key inflation reports on Friday show its once again losing its battle to keep price growth at its target.

Russia’s central bank may ease policy on Friday as inflation and growth subside. The Turkish central bank has limited scope to cut rates on Wednesday as inflation is near 20% and political instability continues.

In South Africa, the first monthly factory, retail and mining data of the second quarter will give a glimpse of the recession risk after the economy contracted in the three months through March. The U.K. reports monthly GDP data on Monday, while unemployment figures will show if the labor market remains the star performer in the economy.

For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA

Latin America

Mexico’s industrial production and Brazil’s retail sales for April -- due Tuesday and Wednesday, respectively -- will be closely watched by investors looking for signs that Latin America’s two largest economies are recovering from contractions in the first quarter. In Argentina, inflation in expected to further slow in May, but still remain near its 50% annual pace, after President Mauricio Macri froze prices on dozens of goods in an attempt to boost his re-election bid.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in London at skennedy4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stephanie Flanders at flanders@bloomberg.net, Fergal O'Brien, Malcolm Scott

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