Inflation Risks, ECB Schnabel, U.K. Housing, India GDP: Eco Day

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Welcome to Thursday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

• Britain’s debate about whether to walk away from post-Brexit commitments with the European Union over Northern Ireland risks unsettling an already sputtering economic recovery
  • Average house prices in the U.K. hit a record 269,945 pounds ($364,220) in September as buyers rushed to tie up deals before a property tax cut came to an end
• President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has made it clearer than ever that he wants lower interest rates, and Turkey’s central bank will likely deliver on his demands Thursday at the expense of the currency and price stability
• An increasingly desperate fight against inflation in some corners of Europe shows no sign of letting up
  • Poland’s surging inflation is starting to bite into online sales before the crucial holiday shopping season
  • Inflation accelerated in Russia, fueling expectations the central bank will make another big increase in its key interest rate next month
  • The European Central Bank must be careful to consider inflation risks in both directions when it sets monetary policy, according to Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel
• This year’s product shortages and supply chain snarls revealed the fragility of the $5.2 trillion trade finance network that helps fuel the global economy, according to a new report produced by McKinsey & Co
• The roughly $2 trillion tax and spending bill being championed by President Joe Biden will act to push up inflation next year if passed by Congress, according to top economists
  • Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s inflation dashboard is starting to show some signs of overheating
• Japan’s new economic stimulus package will have an overall size of around 78.9 trillion yen ($691 billion) with fiscal measures accounting for around 70% of that, according to the Nikkei
• India’s GDP likely rose to its pre-pandemic level in the July-September period, rebounding from a slump in the previous quarter
• South Korea’s household income increased by a record last quarter, bolstered by a recovering economy and cash handouts from the government’s pandemic relief plan

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