Inflation Debate, Vanishing Jobs, China Trade Deal: Eco Day

Welcome to Tuesday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

  • There’s hardly any question that carries greater weight in economics right now, or divides the financial world more sharply, than whether inflation is on the way back
  • The U.S. and China reaffirmed their commitment to the phase-one trade deal in a biannual review, demonstrating a willingness to cooperate even as tensions rise over issues ranging from data security to democracy in Hong Kong
    • The recovery in China’s consumption is moving in two different directions, with the wealthier shopping for luxury goods and taking holidays to the beach, while poorer households continue to cut back
  • Bloomberg Economics has pulled together a dashboard with key metrics and polls for 14 key U.S. swing states
  • Spending by shoppers, drinkers and diners is vital to Britain’s effort to emerge from its deepest recession for three centuries, yet vanishing jobs and empty offices plague Britain’s retailers

    • Bloomberg Economics estimates 4 million U.K. jobs were still supported by the government’s furlough program at the start of August, and with the scheme due to end in October a wave of job losses in the fall remains a huge risk
  • German companies have turned slightly more optimistic that the economy will continue on its long road to recovery

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