If Not China, Where? Trump Deal Risk, Germany Reprieve: Eco Day

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Welcome to Tuesday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• If not China, where? Chang Shu explores which country could be Asia’s next export powerhouse
• Is that “substantial phase one deal” with China that President Donald Trump announced a month ago falling apart? asks Shawn Donnan in Terms of Trade
• Germany’s recent glimmer of hope after a year of industrial doldrums risks coming too late to prevent wider weakness from taking hold. Meantime, Chancellor Angela Merkel signaled support for her deputy’s gambit to break a years-long impasse over Europe’s banking integration
• New Zealand may cut interest rates to a fresh record low as it seeks to boost economic growth and revive inflation
• The World Bank will reduce the scope of a project in China’s Xinjiang region and supervise the work more closely amid concern funds might be used to support the crackdown on minority Muslim Uighurs
• China’s credit growth slowed to the weakest pace since at least 2017 as sluggish corporate demand for credit combined with seasonal effects, signaling efforts to prop up the economy still aren’t working. Chang Shu says the central bank may need to step up easing further before year-end
• India’s factory output shrank to the lowest level in eight years, as a sharp fall in capital goods production underlined weak demand in Asia’s third-largest economy
• The RBA’s updated forecasts released Friday suggest the economy will fall short of the bank’s goals without a boost from fiscal policy, a weaker currency, or further monetary easing, writes James McIntyre
• Britain dodged a recession ahead of the now-postponed Oct. 31 Brexit deadline, but the figures underscore the economic challenge facing whoever wins next month’s election
• Sydney is facing a “catastrophic” fire danger on Tuesday -- the highest warning level that’s ever been issued for Australia’s largest city -- as the country’s bushfire season becomes longer and more intense

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Jason Clenfield

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