How May Could Win a Brexit Deal, China's Quiet Stimulus: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Thursday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• U.K. Prime Minister Theresa May won the vote of confidence in her government -- now she needs to secure a Brexit deal. Bloomberg Economics thinks she will, and before the March 29 deadline
• China has been quietly guiding interbank borrowing costs down without actually cutting official interest rates, with the latest move a record one-day injection of cash into the market
• Meanwhile, the outlook for the world’s second-largest economy remains in laser focus, as questions over the global outlook multiply. Here’s our preview of Monday’s GDP report
• Singapore is the latest Asian nation to report a trade slowdown, with exports dropping the most in more than two years in December
• The yen is likely to reach its strongest level in more than six years if Japan enters a recession, which could come as early as the fall of this year, says a former central bank official
• The still-strong U.S. economy showed signs of slowing in recent weeks, a Federal Reserve survey showed. But Deutsche Bank says the shutdown and the trade war could be enough to tip the economy into recession
• Global economic policy uncertainty surged to a record high at the end of 2018, this chart shows

To contact the reporter on this story: James Mayger in Beijing at jmayger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Chris Bourke

©2019 Bloomberg L.P.