Here’s How Hong Kong’s Unrest Is Hitting the Economy: Tracker

(Bloomberg) -- The strain on Hong Kong’s economy after more than three months of sometimes violent protests is intensifying, with a range of indicators weakening sharply in July and August, threatening to tip the city into recession.

Notably, business sentiment among small- and medium-sized enterprises tumbled to a record low last month, as did the purchasing managers index. While official data isn’t yet available, the government estimates visitor arrivals may have tumbled about 40% in August. Deposits are stable though, signaling the financial system is secure for now.

“It’s hard to see a quick reversal in the economy’s deterioration, even if the protests subside,” said Qian Wan, an economist at Bloomberg Economics in Hong Kong who has developed a broad tracker of the Hong Kong economy. “Confidence has been shaken. The economy is set to face stronger pressure from weakening demand in China and slowing global growth.”

To contact the reporters on this story: Jeffrey Black in Hong Kong at jblack25@bloomberg.net;Hannah Dormido in Hong Kong at hdormido@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Philip Lagerkranser at lagerkranser@bloomberg.net, James Mayger

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