Hedge Fund That Soared 51% Warns Bear Market Rallies Won’t Last

(Bloomberg) -- One of this year’s top macro hedge funds is cautioning investors that the market pain is only beginning.

Said Haidar, a New York-based investor, said he expects an ebb and flow in both public health measures and market performance as the coronavirus wreaks havoc for months to come. He said money managers are far too optimistic about how quickly the world can return to normal because he’s less certain effective vaccines or anti-viral drugs will materialize any time soon.

“I don’t know that these bear market rallies are sustainable,” he said in an interview on Tuesday. “I suspect we might see new lows. Although markets may not go straight down for three weeks, there are still a lot of troubling signs.”

Haidar helped steer one of the standout portfolios of the first quarter as assets around the globe tumbled into bear markets. His $900 million Haidar Jupiter Fund jumped 51% in the first three months of the year, according to a letter to investors seen by Bloomberg. Haidar declined prior to the interview to comment on his fund’s performance.

One of his top concerns is that many Covid-19 cases are going undetected in the developing world, masking the full extent of the public health problem. South Africa, India and Turkey look particularly exposed, according to Haidar.

The hedge fund manager said emerging-market assets will probably underperform their more industrialized counterparts in the coming months, while U.S. markets fair better than Europe. His highest conviction trades include developed-nation bonds, the Swiss franc and the Japanese yen.

“You have to be cautious,” Haidar said. “Everyone in the market is looking for a quick magic bullet. In the end, this will be solved by public health measures, but they might get relaxed and then slammed back on.”

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