Goldman Says Trump’s Tweets Attacking Fed Don’t Move Markets

(Bloomberg) --

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists argued there is “weak evidence” to suggest financial markets are moving in response to President Donald Trump’s tweets about the Federal Reserve, but they are swayed by his comments on trade.

“Statistically the moves in the fed funds futures market following such tweets are not significantly different from those in any given market interval,” Goldman Sachs economist Ronnie Walker wrote in a report to clients. He said the total effect of all the tweets in his sample on futures was about 10 basis points.

By contrast, Trump’s tweets about trade policy have a “highly statistically significant” impact on what markets think about Fed policy, Walker said. The president’s tweets on trade knocked a cumulative 40 basis points off the fed funds futures market, he said.

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“Our interpretation of these findings is that markets believe the president primarily affects Fed policy indirectly by influencing the macroeconomic outlook, with at most a limited perceived role for tweets about the Fed,” Walker said.

The research comes two weeks after a study from Duke University and London Business School found Trump’s use of social media to criticize the Fed had a “statistically significant and negative effect” on markets. Trump has repeatedly used Twitter to attack the Fed and Chairman Jerome Powell for running rates higher than he thinks they should be.

To contact the reporter on this story: Simon Kennedy in London at skennedy4@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Stephanie Flanders at flanders@bloomberg.net, Fergal O'Brien, Catherine Bosley

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