Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day

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Trump says he'll raise China tariffs if Xi won't meet at the G-20 summit. The U.S. expresses “grave concern” over Hong Kong’s extradition proposal. And Citigroup says the S&P 500 is heading for a “full scale bear market.” Here are some of the things people in markets are talking about today.

Trump Warns Xi

Donald Trump warned that tariffs on China will go up if Xi Jinping won't meet at the G-20 summit in Japan. “I think he will go, and I think we're scheduled to have a meeting,” the president told CNBC, adding Beijing is “going to have to make a deal.” Trump renewed his attack on the Fed, complaining it not having the power over the Fed that he says Xi wields over China's central bank. “The head of the Fed in China is President Xi,” he said. “He can do whatever he wants.”

‘Grave Concern’ Over Extradition

The U.S. State Department expressed “ grave concern” over a proposed law in Hong Kong that would allow extraditions to mainland China, warning that the move could further undermine the city’s freedoms and damage its business environment. If the proposal is passed, it could for the first time mean that by law Hong Kong residents might face justice in Chinese courts. A protest held on Sunday was one of the biggest seen in the city since 1997. Here’s why Hong Kong craves autonomy. 

Global Stock Rally

Asian equity futures are narrowly mixed after U.S. stocks extended a global rally following Trump’s suspension of tariffs on Mexico. The Nasdaq jumped 1% and the S&P 500 advanced for a fifth straight session. The Mexican peso strengthened more than 2%. The dollar otherwise advanced, rising against all G-10 partners. Treasuries fell, with 10-year yields up almost seven basis points, and gold dropped. Oil fell for the first time in three days amid rising supplies and macro economic concerns.

Saudi, Russia and Oil

Speaking of oil, Saudi Arabia and Russia voiced concerns that falling crude demand could send prices below $40 a barrel as they met in Moscow. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said OPEC is almost unanimous on extending supply cuts and positions may be calibrated at G-20 meetings. Russian counterpart Alexander Novak warned of a high risk of oversupply even as the country holds out on the OPEC+ deal. WTI futures fell below $53 a barrel.

Bear Market Ahead

Citi warned trade tensions are set to roil stocks, bonds and commodities even more. The bank's base case predicts Trump applying 25% tariffs on additional Chinese goods. If the Fed doesn't cut, expect a “full scale bear market” that sends the S&P 500 down 20% from its April peak, 10-year Treasury yields tumbling to 1.5% or lower and a surge in gold to $1,600 an ounce.    

What we’ve been reading

This is what's caught our eye over the last 24 hours.

• A Singapore family made enough in one day to buy eight luxury penthouses.
• Alibaba’s Hong Kong share offering should worry U.S. markets.
• Wall Street firms pushing into China face even bigger rivals.
• Trump’s failures make him even more dangerous, Timothy L. O’Brien writes.
• For China's yuan, the path toward 7 per dollar is now wide open.
• Russia says the war on Huawei risks “destroying” the tech world. 
• What K-pop sensation BTS can teach us about economics. 

To contact the editor responsible for this story: Robert Lafranco at rlafranco@bloomberg.net

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