Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day
(Bloomberg) --
Good morning. Trade tensions between the U.S. and China continue to ramp up ahead of the G-20, oil prices remain volatile and Bitcoin’s reliving some of its recent glory days. Here’s what’s moving markets.
G-20 Eve
The G-20 summit is still a day away but U.S. President Donald Trump has given markets plenty to chew over before he holds talks with Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Trump said he has a plan B for China should the trade talks falter, namely slapping billions more in tariffs on Chinese goods. The question is whether the two can make enough progress towards a deal that they keep talking, avoiding the extra levies. Watch for more comments from both sides ahead of the meeting and note Bloomberg Economics’s calculation that if they can reach a deal, it could save the global economy $1.2 trillion.
Breach
Oil prices dipped a little on Thursday, but note this was after having hit a 5-week high following the biggest drop in U.S. crude stockpiles since 2016. Beyond the supply story, the tensions around Iran remain key for the direction of oil prices. The Middle East country is due on Thursday to breach its 2015 nuclear deal for the first time, putting pressure on European powers to attempt to salvage that agreement in the face of crippling U.S. sanctions on Iran. United Nations members also expressed concern that if Iran doesn’t take a step back, it could sleepwalk into war. Stopping that will be another key topic at the G-20.
Illiquidity
H20 Asset Management, the money manager backed by French bank Natixis SA, is planning to jettison the controversial illiquid holdings which have triggered billions of dollars of withdrawals from its funds in the past week or so. Similar to U.K. fund manager Neil Woodford, it would appear that in a search for yield, funds have been piling into higher-risk assets that are more difficult to offload in a selloff. Bank of England Governor Mark Carney weighed in on the issue but the backdrop is likely to remain the same, with two major U.S. banks now predicting even lower U.S. Treasury yields to come.
Deja Vu
It's beginning to look a lot like late 2017. Bitcoin is surging, topping the $13,000 mark on Wednesday and taking its gain for the year to around 200%. Crypto-related stocks are following Bitcoin higher, again echoing the stunning price swings seen during the heady days of the previous crypto craze, and the fortune of the Winklevoss twins has doubled. One difference this time? Consumers don’t seem to care as much. Short interest in Bitcoin is also at a record high and positions are having to be unwound due to the rise for the asset, so more short-covering is likely to continue to push prices higher. Strap in, folks.
Coming Up...
Asian stocks investors at least are optimistic that a deal is going to get done, with stocks rising and the Japanese yen falling the most since April. European futures are also pointing to a positive open, following Asia’s example. The second part of the Federal Reserve’s bank stress test results will be published on Thursday and we’ll get economic confidence data for the euro area and inflation data for both Germany and Spain to mull over.
What We’ve Been Reading
This is what’s caught our eye over the past 24 hours.
- Health insurance was at the center of the first Democrat debate.
- A billionaire general bets his fortune on London property.
- The anxiety of having an algorithm as a boss.
- The bank robber who was a product of the opioid crisis.
- Hotel hackers are hiding in the remote control curtains.
- New rich list entrants are the kids of Russian titans.
- The uncertain future of facial recognition.
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