Fed Rate Decision, ‘Productive’ Trade Talks, U.K. Pain: Eco Day

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Welcome to Wednesday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • It’s rate decision day for the Federal Reserve: Here’s what to expect
    • The U.S. central bank will offer little evidence that it’s drifting from its “patient” posture at the current meeting, says Bloomberg Economics’ Carl Riccadonna
    • The U.S. economy might indeed take off like a rocket if the Fed acquiesces to President Donald Trump’s demands -- but it would increase the risk of crash-landing later
  • The latest round of U.S.-China talks wrapped up in Beijing on Wednesday, with U.S. Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin calling the meetings “productive”
  • U.K. manufacturing growth slowed in April as firms dialed back Brexit-related stockpiling and new export business
    • Separately, British house-price growth stayed subdued in April, while figures from the Bank of England for March showed that mortgage lending unexpectedly fell and unsecured credit grew at its weakest pace in more than five years
    • Ahead of Thursday’s BOE rate decision, Bloomberg Economics’ Dan Hanson explains that while it’s right to assume the U.K. central bank’s hands are tied, it has little to do with the Fed’s rate pause and everything to do with Brexit
  • South Korea’s exports fell less than expected in April even as they dropped for a fifth straight month. While concerns linger about slowing growth in Asia’s fourth-largest economy, the potential signs of recovery in shipments add to hopes for a rebound in global trade this year
    • Southeast Asia, China, Japan and South Korea are expected to remain “resilient” in the face of heightened trade tensions and stronger global headwinds, a regional body said
  • Finally, here’s how 20 years of policies masterminded by charismatic former paratrooper Hugo Chavez dragged Venezuela into crisis

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