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Fed Model Shows Recession Risk Still Low, But Increasing
A Federal Reserve Bank of New York gauge puts the chances of a recession at almost 16 percent a year from now.
02 Jan 2019, 07:50 PM IST 
A clerk in the S&P 500 pit works at the Chicago Board of Trade in Chicago, Illinois, U.S. (Photographer: Tim Boyle/Bloomberg News)
(Bloomberg) -- With a volatile 2018 almost in the books, it’s a good time to look forward to the year ahead for the U.S. economy. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York gauge puts the chances of a recession at almost 16 percent a year from now, according to the latest available data. While it’s the highest since November 2008, it’s well below the peak of that year.
To contact the reporter on this story: Sophie Caronello in Washington at scaronello@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Sophie Caronello at scaronello@bloomberg.net, Jeff Kearns
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