Fed Expectations, Tougher Recovery, U.S. Debt Pile: Eco Day

Welcome to Friday, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

  • The Federal Reserve is expected to balk again at providing fresh interest rate guidance, economists said in a Bloomberg survey
  • America’s economic rebound is about to get a lot tougher with diminished chances in Congress for additional support for the jobless and businesses
    • The U.S. government is paying less as it borrows more, one reason investors appear more comfortable than Congress about funding another leg of stimulus
  • A month after Donald Trump moved to shore up workers’ incomes by giving employers the option of deferring payroll taxes, the effort has failed to energize a U.S. economy still reeling from the coronavirus pandemic

    • Trump is reviving his 2016 campaign playbook on attacking China, but running as the incumbent means defending a record of only limited success in rewriting the economic relationship with Beijing
  • Mexico turned its forecast for a primary deficit into a surplus this year thanks in part to tax agreements with companies like Walmart Inc.’s local business, Deputy Finance Minister Gabriel Yorio said
  • European Central Bank officials are toughening their language on the euro, with chief economist Philip Lane warning the appreciation of the single currency this year has dampened the inflation outlook
  • Britain recorded strong economic growth in July as coronavirus restrictions eased, but mounting job losses and the risk of a messy Brexit are threatening a turbulent end to the year
    • Rising virus cases in the U.K. and the withdrawal of fiscal support suggest momentum will fade later this year, which calls for further easing from the Bank of England, according to Bloomberg Economics
    • The U.K. and the European Union are heading for a chaotic split without a new trade deal as talks between the two sides frayed
  • A steeper-than-anticipated rise in China’s August credit takes some pressure off the People’s Bank of China to loosen policy -- but not enough to shift its stance from an incremental easing tilt, according to Bloomberg Economics

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