Emerging-Market Growth Diverges on Virus, Capital Flight

Emerging-Market Growth Diverges on Virus, Capital Flight

Taken together, major emerging-market economies have already surpassed their pre-virus peak. Individually, they’re recovering at different speeds, depending on virus containment, trade, commodities, capital flight, and a low base of comparison with the pandemic recession. Bloomberg Economics expects gross domestic product in major emerging markets to expand 8% in aggregate this year after contracting 1.1% in 2020. Excluding the impact of base effects, commodity exporters such as Chile and Saudi Arabia are set to outperform their peers.

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