ECB Mustn’t Tighten Despite ‘Painful’ Inflation, Lagarde Says
Shouldn’t tighten monetary policy too soon – even in the face of “unwelcome & painful” inflation, says ECB Chief Christine Lagarde
(Bloomberg) --
The European Central Bank shouldn’t tighten monetary policy too soon -- even in the face of “unwelcome and painful” inflation, according to President Christine Lagarde.
The bank is taking concerns about rising prices “very seriously,” Lagarde told the Frankfurt European Banking Congress on Friday, reiterating that she doesn’t envisage an increase in interest rates next year.
“We recognize that higher inflation squeezes people’s real incomes, especially those at the bottom of the income distribution,” Lagarde said.
Euro-area prices are surging at the fastest pace since 2008. While inflation is forecast to ease in 2022, it’s likely to accelerate first on higher energy costs and supply-chain snarls -- factors ECB officials deem largely temporary.
Price growth in Germany clocked in at 4.6% last month, causing the country’s leading tabloid to lash out at Lagarde for not acting to tame it.
“We must not rush into a premature tightening when faced with passing or supply-driven inflation shocks,” Lagarde said. “At a time when purchasing power is already being squeezed by higher energy and fuel bills, an undue tightening would represent an unwarranted headwind for the recovery.”
She said the prospects for medium-term inflation are better now than they were before the pandemic, when the ECB struggled to bring it up to its 2% target.
“We should continue nurturing these forces by not withdrawing policy support prematurely,” Lagarde said.
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“With euro-area inflation racing through 4%, markets are betting that price gains will stick, potentially forcing the European Central Bank to act by the end of next year. We think that view is wrong -- by then we forecast inflation will have slowed to about 1%. As the headline rate falls back, the narrative on monetary policy will shift. Peak inflation fear is about to pass.”
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The ECB is heading into a crucial meeting in December on the future of its monetary stimulus. A 1.85 trillion-euro ($2.1 trillion) pandemic bond-buying program is scheduled to end in March, and options including a boost to regular asset purchases are set to be debated.
Alongside elevated inflation, the economy is under threat from record Covid-19 infections that have prompted the return of lockdowns in some parts of Europe. Momentum has already been sapped as the disruptions to supply chains curb manufacturing output.
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