Dudley Bombshell, Dollar Recession Risk, BOE Succession: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) --

Welcome to Wednesday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• Andy Haldane has spent 30 years working at the Bank of England, yet he may boast the greatest outside perspective of anybody running to become its next governor
• A former top Fed official suggested it reject interest-rate cuts that would help Donald Trump’s 2020 reelection, drawing swift criticism
• After years of negative interest rates, Europe’s banks may soon need either to change their business model or shrink, according to the head of the financial watchdog in Denmark
• The Bank of Israel may have to show its cards on the currency this week or risk the market calling its bluff -- it announces its rate decision today
• The dollar has been ascendant in 2019 and forecasts for a U.S. recession are growing louder. If the greenback’s strength keeps up and the economy does shrink, that could make it harder to recover
• The global economy could be hit by a second wave of damage from the U.S.-China trade war -- and it will be much more severe than the first, Indonesian Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati said
• Perhaps nobody was more surprised to hear that China had called the Trump administration to restart talks than Beijing itself. Meantime, pressure on China to ease monetary policy is increasing, based on July data captured in a Bloomberg dashboard, writes economist David Qu
• Asian governments are trickling out fiscal stimulus amid a deepening export slump, aiding central bank efforts to shore up their economies
• Weakness in India’s investment and consumption activity worsened in July, with economic growth showing little signs of recovery from a five-year low. Fortunately, the RBI’s record $24.4 billion payout to the government will give Indian authorities more fiscal options

To contact the reporter on this story: James Mayger in Beijing at jmayger@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Jeffrey Black at jblack25@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss

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