Don’t Expect the Global Economy to Bounce Back Quickly, OECD’s Boone Says

(Bloomberg) -- The global economy is looking at a difficult climb back to levels seen before the coronavirus pandemic as countries are slowly start to loosen containment measures, according to OECD Chief Economist Laurence Boone.

“This is going to be a very gradual process with some activities that will not be open for a long time,” Boone said in an interview with Bloomberg Television on Tuesday. “It’s going to be very slow and not the bounce back to where we were before.”

Countries including Italy, Spain and Germany have begune to easing their shutdowns, though restaurants, cafes and hotels will remain shut for longer in many places. The European Central Bank projects a contraction in the currency bloc of 5-12% this year, partly depending on the further development of the pandemic and the need for restrictions.

Government action so far, including support for household incomes and businesses’ liquidity needs, has been “impressive,” Boone said. “They’ve done the maximum that they could do in this phase one of the pandemic and the economic shock that goes with it. Now we’re going to enter a more difficult phase where the support will have to become more targeted.”

That could mean workers moving out of sectors that will be “sleeping” for a long time and into others where there are labor shortages, she said. It could also mean help for entrepreneurs that restructure or close their businesses and open new ones “wherever necessary.”

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