Democrats’ Job Losses Deeper Than Republicans’, Data Suggest

The pandemic has caused considerably deeper job losses for Americans who are likely to support Democrats compared with those who lean Republican, according to an economist who assessed voting tendencies from employment data.

July data from the Labor Department, combined with a Harvard University study, show the likely Democratic unemployment rate at 11.7% and the probable Republican rate at 7.6%, Jed Kolko, chief economist at jobs website Indeed, said in a Twitter thread Thursday. Measures such as the prime-age employment-population ratio have rebounded more for GOP leaners too, Kolko said.

The estimates reflect the recession’s impact on minorities, women and big cities, because they predict a respondent’s vote based on demographic variables including age, race and sex. The figures may also provide some background for the stalemate between the White House and congressional Democrats over a new aid package after $600 a week in federal benefits expired at the end of July.

President Donald Trump used executive actions over the weekend to redirect disaster-relief funds to provide $300 a week in federal aid to the unemployed, plus $100 in state funds after Congress could not agree on a new stimulus package.

Trump has touted his strength on the economy as a reason why voters should reelect him in November. Yet the disparity in the pandemic’s impact could potentially fuel more votes for Democratic challenger Joe Biden, who leads in polls.

Understanding differences between Democrats and Republicans can help “explain partisan attitudes about the economy,” Kolko said. “Even if these differences aren’t caused by partisanship, partisan differences in how people are doing can affect differences in attitudes and political responses.”

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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