Creeping Recession Risk, China Recovery, Draghi Softens: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Thursday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• As the yield curve flashes warning signs of a U.S. recession, some key economic indicators are offering more conflicting signals. The economy may have slowed more sharply than previously reported, potentially dragging full-year growth below the 3 percent mark President Donald Trump has boasted about achieving
• China’s economy is showing further signs of recovery after months of slowdown, though downward pressures still persist
• Don’t expect a major pact on China’s yuan. That’s what analysts are saying as U.S. officials arrive in Beijing for another round of negotiations; here’s how the trade war has reached a turning point
• Mario Draghi said the ECB is ready to soften the impact of negative interest rates if they are found to harm the transmission of its monetary policy. The central bank is hoping the outlook will improve through 2019, but has the necessary tools to react if it worsens
• New Zealand selected three economists with backgrounds ranging from finance to agriculture as the first external members to join the Reserve Bank’s new monetary policy committee
• Britain’s no-deal flotilla is preparing to sail, shuttling trucks carrying critical goods into the country starting Friday -- at least two weeks before a possible split from EU raises any trade barriers
• Corporate America brought $664.9 billion of offshore profits back to the U.S. last year, falling short of the $4 trillion Trump said would return
• Meantime, the White House’s chief economist said Stephen Moore would likely tone down his rhetoric “if” he’s nominated to the Fed board. Moore owes more than $75,000 in taxes and other penalties, government records show
• Israel’s long-term economic expansion is likely to fall off in the coming decades, the Bank of Israel said
• Prospects remain grim for this year’s worst-performing major currency as Sweden’s central bank may recharge its quantitative-easing program
• After almost three months, a currency flash crash that wildly tossed the yen and the Australian dollar around is still on the mind of the Reserve Bank of Australia

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Chris Bourke

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