Coronavirus Pandemic Puts Fed on Rapid Route to Zero: Eco Week
The Federal Reserve is under increasing pressure to keep the flow of support coming this week, due to the Coronavirus outbreak.
(Bloomberg) --
With the coronavirus outbreak rewriting the rules of the global economy, the Federal Reserve is under increasing pressure to keep the flow of support coming this week.
The U.S. central bank is facing calls to slash borrowing costs to zero at or before Wednesday’s decision, adding to its attempt last week to buttress free-falling markets with extra bond purchases. The Bank of Japan is also expected to act, after a week that saw institutions around the world cut rates and unleash a raft of extraordinary targeted measure to keep economies afloat amid the spreading pandemic.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say...
“Given the ongoing deterioration of both economic and financial conditions, as well as the Fed’s demonstrated willingness to act in a proactive fashion, Bloomberg Economics expects policy makers to move to the effective lower bound.”
--Carl Riccadonna, Yelena Shulyatyeva, Andrew Husby and Eliza Winger
With central banks -- which are also scheduled to hold rate decisions from Switzerland to Brazil to Indonesia this week -- running short of policy room, a greater onus is also falling on governments. Group-of-Seven leaders are due to discuss their response to the escalating crisis on Monday, as more and more nations introduce drastic measures to try to keep the spread in check.
Here’s what happened last week and below is our wrap of what else is going on in the world economy this week.
U.S.
All eyes will be on the Federal Open Market Committee and its decision Wednesday, with the main questions being how deeply it will cut interest rates, what other actions might be announced and whether officials might even act before their regularly scheduled gathering.
Data on February retail sales and industrial production will give a sense of how the economy was performing as the coronavirus emerged in the U.S., while March factory indexes and homebuilder sentiment may show dents from the outbreak.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for the U.S.
Asia
China on Monday will announce industrial output, retail spending and investment numbers for the first two months of the year -- giving a comprehensive look at the damage the coronavirus lockdown has done to the world’s second-largest economy.
Australia’s central bank will release minutes of its March meeting on Tuesday, with investors scouring them for views on whether another interest-rate cut and the adoption of quantitative easing lies ahead. On Thursday, central banks in Japan, the Philippines, Indonesia and Taiwan will meet just hours after the Fed’s decision is announced. All face pressure to increase monetary stimulus as the virus threat to global growth deepens by the day. On Friday, China will announce its loan prime rate, with economists expecting a 5 basis point reduction to both the 1-year and 5-year levels.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Asia
Europe, Middle East and Africa
With most of Europe in partial lockdown because of the coronavirus, euro-area finance ministers are set to meet on Monday to discuss the state of the bloc’s economy as well as the measures their governments are taking to cushion the economic impact of the outbreak. A day later, Germany’s ZEW investor confidence indicator is predicted to show the weakest reading since August.
In the U.K., new Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey kicks off his term in exceptional circumstances on Monday, while the nation is also scheduled to report jobs and public finances data from before the virus outbreak.
The Swiss National Bank is expected to hold on Thursday as the European Central Bank’s decision not to cut rates allows policy makers led by President Thomas Jordan to maintain its record low -0.75% interest rate. South Africa is expected to cut rates, while Turkey’s central bank, which has slashed interest rates to 10.75% from 24% last June, may find it difficult to heed President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s calls to continue to single digits: the lira is trading at the lowest levels against the dollar since the currency’s 2018 meltdown.
In Russia, where policy makers meet on Friday, pressure is building on the central bank as President Vladimir Putin engages in an oil-price war with Saudi Arabia that’s sent the ruble plunging.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for EMEA
Latin America
On Wednesday, Brazil’s central bank will all but certainly cut its key rate for a sixth straight meeting from the current record-low 4.25%. Even before factoring in the expected drag on growth from the coronavirus outbreak, Latin America’s biggest economy is sputtering and inflation is right at the 4% year-end inflation target.
Earlier in the day, Chilean data is expected to show that the economy last year posted its poorest performance since the Great Recession. With prices for copper, the country’s biggest export, tumbling amid the coronavirus outbreak 2020 may be no better.
- For more, read Bloomberg Economics’ full Week Ahead for Latin America
--With assistance from Benjamin Harvey, Malcolm Scott, Margaret Collins, Robert Jameson and Viktoria Dendrinou.
To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Simon Kennedy at skennedy4@bloomberg.net, Zoe Schneeweiss, James Amott
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