China Yet to Bottom, Davos Warning, Trade Talks Debate: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Welcome to Tuesday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

• China’s gradual slowdown last quarter and signs of a stabilization in December were a relief to investors fearing worse was looming. But that doesn’t mean the economy has already bottomed out. Indeed, Chang Shu says the nadir mightn’t be reached until after the first quarter. That said, the nation’s increase in output last year was still greater than all the goods and services produced in Australia in 2017
• Corporate executives joined the IMF in warning the global economy is slowing faster than expected, establishing a downbeat tone for the annual Davos meeting this week. On a brighter note, the IMF sees Japan growing faster than previously expected this year and next
• Ever since U.S. and Chinese negotiators sat down in the wake of a Christmas market meltdown, President Trump has sought to calm investors and claim talks are making great strides. But the reality is less comfortable. Meanwhile, Stephen Jen reckons the consensus view on the U.S.-China trade war “will be a 180-degree miss,” with a more open China rather than a more closed U.S. the end result
• Ireland’s Philip Lane staked his claim to become the ECB’s next chief economist -- now he must wait to see if he has the field to himself
• With global risks increasing and financial markets fragile, the Swiss National Bank is sticking with its expansive monetary policy, according Vice President Fritz Zurbruegg
• Five years ago, New Zealand banks were so keen to lend they were giving away iPads and flat-screen TVs to attract new mortgage customers. Today, the gifts are gone
• In Davos, these are uncomfortable times for the annual meeting’s archetypal men — and at least one woman

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, Malcolm Scott

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