China Trade Slump, U.S. Recession Warning Signs: Eco Day

(Bloomberg) -- Happy Monday, Europe. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your day started:

  • Chinese trade collapsed at the end of last year, with both exports and imports unexpectedly shrinking in December after a weak November. The slump in both domestic and foreign demand illustrates the weakening economy and hurts China’s position as it looks to negotiate an end to the trade war
  • Theresa May enters one of the most tumultuous weeks of her turbulent premiership as the U.K. Parliament prepares to decide the fate of her Brexit deal, which is facing almost certain defeat in a vote on Tuesday
  • Italy’s economy is probably in a phase of stagnation not recession, Finance Minister Giovanni Tria said in a newspaper interview, adding that the country’s deficit will be kept under control
  • Many financial markets are already signaling that the U.S. is more likely than not hurtling toward recession. But will they prove prescient or overly fretful?
    • In the wake of the Fed’s massive communication campaign following the December FOMC meeting, Bloomberg Economics is revising its forecast to two interest-rate increases in 2019, down from three

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