China’s Stats Accentuate Positive, Play Down Negatives, Lou Says
China’s Stats Accentuate Positive, Play Down Negatives, Lou Says
(Bloomberg) -- A former Chinese finance minister criticized the country’s statistics for not properly reporting negative economic changes, with the rare harsh public statement from a senior figure highlighting long-standing concerns about the accuracy and reliability of national data.
A key meeting of top leaders this week said China’s growth next year will be weighed down by a “triple” whammy of contracting demand, a supply shock, and weakening expectations. However, none of those are visible in the statistical indicators, which have all been “very good,” Lou Jiwei, a former minister of finance, said at an online event Saturday.
“There are insufficient figures reflecting negative changes” in the economy, Lou said, adding the one-sided data make it harder to assess the government’s current judgment on the “triple forces” overshadowing the economy. “In contrast, the U.S. has both positive and negative numbers.”
While the government touts the increase in the number of companies and other market entities despite the pandemic, it hasn’t publicized the fact that a large number of these are inactive due to business woes and the difficulty of canceling official registrations, Lou claimed. Similarly, government statistics count new jobs created but don’t follow up on whether those people are then laid off after six months or more, according to Lou.
Lou is well-known as an outspoken and forthright commentator on the economy. After serving as finance minister, he headed the national pension fund until 2019.
Economists as well as Chinese government officials have repeatedly raised questions about the accuracy of the nation’s economic data over the years. After a series of scandals about faked data, a special unit was set up to combat the issue, with Ning Jizhe, head of the national statistics bureau, saying in 2018 the problems were all in the past.
Ning spoke at the online forum Saturday just before Lou made his comments.
Although China’s statistics do look to have improved in recent years as national authorities take over more responsibility for data collection, doubts remain, with issues such as the steadiness of growth statistics or discrepancies between national and local numbers continuing to raise questions about accuracy.
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With assistance from Bloomberg