China’s Ongoing Recovery Showed Signs of Weakness in July

(Bloomberg) -- Sign up for the New Economy Daily newsletter, follow us @economics and subscribe to our podcast.

China’s economy continued its stable pace of recovery in July, though there were some signs of weakness as property sales slumped, small business confidence slipped and the stock market fell. paragraph

That’s the outlook from Bloomberg’s aggregate index of eight early indicators, which remained unchanged in expansionary territory in July for the third consecutive month.

The economy’s V-shaped rebound has steadied recently and showed more balance as consumer spending picked up. Officials expect a stable recovery in the second half of the year, but have also warned of downward pressures on growth, including a likely slowdown in trade.

For now, global demand remains strong. South Korean exports, a barometer of world trade, rose by one-third in the first three weeks of July, a sign that virus variants have yet to be a major drag on demand.

There were also positive signs for China’s factory-gate inflation, with Bloomberg’s price tracker easing in July from its highest level on record in June, suggesting government steps to boost supply of some commodities and stabilize their prices began to have an effect.

Real estate sales cooled in July after the government embarked on a wave of steps to curb surging prices, while car sales stayed muted.

The property market is likely in for some more pain. The housing ministry issued a statement Friday vowing to “notably improve order” in the sector in about three years and crack down on violations. The city of Shanghai subsequently hiked mortgage rates for first-time buyers to 5% from 4.65% and for non-first-time buyers to 5.7% from 5.25%.

Nomura Holdings Inc.’s economists said they expect more local governments to follow suit. And unlike in the past, when Beijing eased property restrictions to smooth out growth volatility, this time around it’s likely to retain them, they said.

Confidence among small and medium-sized enterprises slipped in July, according to a survey of more than 500 companies by Standard Chartered Plc., with both the “current performance” and “expectations” sub-indexes moving lower, suggesting that SMEs’ underlying momentum turned weaker entering the third quarter.

“The slowdown was more pronounced for SMEs in the manufacturing sector,” Standard Chartered economists Hunter Chan and Ding Shuang wrote in the report. “Softer domestic demand weighed on sales and production for domestically focused SMEs.”

The services industry continued to recover, with both performance and the profitability outlook improving, they wrote.

The official purchasing manager indexes for manufacturing and non-manufacturing industries will be released next week, and are expected to be largely unchanged from June, suggesting a steady expansion in the economy.

Early Indicators

Bloomberg Economics generates the overall activity reading by aggregating a three-month weighted average of the monthly changes of eight indicators, which are based on business surveys or market prices.

• Major onshore stocks: CSI 300 index of A-share stocks listed in Shanghai or Shenzhen (through market close on 25th of the month)
• Total floor area of home sales in China’s four Tier-1 cities (Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen)
• Inventory of steel rebar, used for reinforcement in construction (in 10,000 metric tons). Falling inventory is a sign of rising demand
• Copper prices: Spot price for refined copper in Shanghai market (yuan/metric ton)
• South Korean exports: South Korean exports in the first 20 days of each month (year-on-year change)
• Factory inflation tracker: Bloomberg Economics created a tracker for Chinese producer prices (year-on-year change)
• Small and medium-sized business confidence: Survey of companies conducted by Standard Chartered Plc
• Passenger car sales: Monthly result calculated from weekly average sales data released by the China Passenger Car Association

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

With assistance from Bloomberg