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China’s Local Governments Give Early Hints of 2022 GDP Target

Moderate to ambitious growth targets of China's local governments give a signal of national goals.

China’s Local Governments Give Early Hints of 2022 GDP Target
A worker counts Chinese 100 yuan banknotes in Hong Kong, China. (Photographer: Paul Yeung/Bloomberg)

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Local governments in China have started mapping out their economic blueprints for 2022, setting moderate to ambitious growth targets that give a signal of national goals. 

The city of Beijing and Henan province aim to expand their economies by “above 5%” and “7%” respectively, according to draft government work reports released on their websites Thursday. That compares with pre-pandemic growth rates of 6.1% and 7% for the two regions in 2019.  

Beijing’s municipality said “stability is the top priority,” echoing recent comments from China’s top leadership. Henan’s government said the gross domestic product target has “fully taken into account its advantages and potential, estimated difficulties and challenges” and can “help guide expectations, boost confidence, and unify forces.”

China usually releases an annual GDP target in March when the National People’s Congress, the parliament, meets. Economists expect leaders to set a floor for economic growth of 5% for 2022 as the government tries to balance a desire to rein in the real-estate sector with the need for stability. 

China’s Local Governments Give Early Hints of 2022 GDP Target

Henan province estimated its economy expanded by “around 6.5%” last year, missing the target of “above 7%” set for the full year. In the first three quarters of last year, GDP increased 7.1% from a year ago, suggesting the provincial economy slowed substantially in the final quarter. 

Beijing projected its economy grew 8.5% last year, surpassing its target of above 6%.

A national GDP target of about 5% for this year would represent a sizable drop from pre-pandemic growth rates that were closer to 7%, and reflect expectations that the government will persist with its efforts to reduce its reliance on real estate even at the cost of slower growth.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

With assistance from Bloomberg