China’s Growth Rate Seen Decelerating to 2.9% in 2050

(Bloomberg) -- The blow from Covid-19 has put Chinese gross domestic product on track to grow just 2% in 2020, based on Bloomberg Economics’ projections -- this is strong by global comparison, but the slowest on record since China began reforms in the late 1970s. Looking into the next decade, the confluence of a shrinking labor force, slower capital accumulation and the impact of a partial reversal in globalization that has propelled China’s development will put growth on a lower trajectory -- BE projects 5% a year on average in 2020-2029. Looking further ahead, BE forecasts growth to slow to 4.2% and 3.3% in the following two decades, with the growth rate decelerating to 2.9% in 2050.

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