China Response, Pessimistic Outlook, Fed Patience: Eco Day

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Good morning, Americas. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help get your Thursday started:

• China’s Ministry of Commerce says the U.S. unilaterally escalated trade tensions and if it wants talks to resume, it needs to correct what it did and show sincerity
• After months of predicting a trade deal between the world’s two largest economies, economists at some of the biggest financial institutions are growing increasingly pessimistic
• In the meantime, Fed officials are in no hurry to move interest rates -- and an escalation in the trade war could keep them on hold even longer.
  • Policy makers further emphasized their commitment to a “patient" stance in the latest minutes, Carl Riccadonna says
  • Meanwhile, the central banks’ influential staff seems to have lost confidence that its bosses will achieve the Fed’s 2% target
• When Donald Trump first took office in 2017, Beijing officials argued that his tough campaign talk was merely negotiating tactics rather than deeply held beliefs. That now looks completely wrong
• German business confidence fell to the weakest in more than four years as the escalation of global trade tensions weighed heavily on the outlook
  • Meanwhile, the tariffs are also sending shock waves through Spain’s olive groves
• The longest economic expansion in the developed world may not be much longer for this world -- listen to our latest Stephanomics Podcast here
• And finally, how would you fare trying to fill some of Europe’s top jobs? Play our EU Game of Thrones to find out...

To contact the reporter on this story: David Goodman in London at dgoodman28@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Gordon at pgordon6@bloomberg.net, Brian Swint

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