China Nightmare, Asia Turning Point, Global Sweet Spot: Eco Day

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Welcome to Thursday, Asia. Here’s the latest news and analysis from Bloomberg Economics to help you start the day:

• Ahead of biggest human migration in world, the respiratory virus sweeping China couldn’t have occurred at a worse time. The city at the center of the outbreak suspended outbound flights and rail service, as China ramps up efforts to contain the illness that’s killed at least 17 people and infected hundreds
• The first-phase trade deal between the U.S. and China doesn’t signal an end to tensions, according to Singapore Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who warned Asia is now at a turning point as the two nations jostle for influence across the region
• The global economy is in a “sweet spot” amid steady growth, relatively subdued inflation and renewed optimism from the trade deal, according to Harvard University economist Carmen Reinhart -- best known for her dire warnings of market crises
• Brazil, Saudi Arabia and Australia are among major economies exporting agriculture and energy that are most likely to lose orders from China as a result of the $200 billion commitment to buy from the U.S. Here’s a map of potential losers from the deal
• President Donald Trump put European leaders on notice, renewing a threat to hurt the economies of transatlantic allies if they aren’t willing to compromise on a trade deal before the U.S. elections. The trade war is now two years old, with China appearing to have escaped with just a flesh wound
• Hong Kong retailers are struggling as mainland shoppers stay away to avoid raging anti-China protests
• Indonesia’s central bank is set to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged Thursday, while keeping an easing bias to support economic growth
• Stephen Poloz said the door is open for the Bank of Canada to cut if the current economic slowdown persists
• Over in the U.K., the path toward a potential rate cut this month took another twist after a report showing a surge in optimism among U.K. manufacturers pushed market pricing down to 50%
• Five years since the ECB announced cash injections to stave off deflation and President Christine Lagarde wants to know why price growth is still so lackluster. Officials deciding how to review ECB monetary policy plan a two-part approach
• The Swiss National Bank isn’t being swayed by the U.S. when it comes to currency interventions, Governing Board Member Andrea Maechler says
• Pakistan’s Prime Minister Imran Khan said that “people are hurting” from his government’s efforts to stabilize the economy, though he believes this year will see an uptick in growth and job creation
• When bad things happen to economies, or threaten to, the world has gotten used to seeing central banks at the front line of defense — with America’s Fed in the lead. That’s not how the climate crisis is playing out. Meantime, here are Laurence Fink, Mark Carney, Anne Richards on climate risks

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Heath in Sydney at mheath1@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Paul Jackson at pjackson53@bloomberg.net, Alexandra Veroude

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