Charting the Global Economy: U.S. Growth Forecasts Upgraded

(Bloomberg) -- Economists are ratcheting up their projections for U.S. growth this year as Congress moves closer to another large financial support package, while the recovery in much of Europe is expected to be more moderate.

Japan’s economy, meanwhile, is projected to have registered double-digit growth as 2020 drew to a close, fueled in part by export demand. While emergency guidelines point to a setback in the current quarter, a stronger fourth-quarter result suggests the nation will be better positioned soon after.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

U.S.

Expectations for gross domestic product growth increased for the current three-month period and every subsequent quarter through mid-2022 in the latest survey of economists by Bloomberg News. Economic growth this year is estimated to be the strongest since 1984.

The consumer price index is part of an intensifying debate in financial markets over the course of inflation. Despite the tame January figure, price pressures are set to firm in the months ahead.

Europe

The European economy will recover more slowly this year as the coronavirus keeps a tight grip on the region, with the outlook resting largely on a vaccination campaign that has so far stumbled.

European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has presided over an unprecedented flood of monetary stimulus in the euro area and, as a consequence, conditions in financial markets have never been looser.

The U.K. economy grew at double the pace expected in the fourth quarter, showing signs of resilience to coronavirus restrictions at the end of a year that delivered the worst recession since 1709.

Asia

India’s admission of a record budget deficit is drawing praise from investors, who see it as baby steps to making data out of Asia’s third-largest economy less opaque and aiding its goal of becoming part of global bond indices.

Japan’s economy is estimated to have finished the pandemic year of 2020 with growth reaching double digits, a show of resilience that suggests the country could emerge from a damaging state of emergency this quarter on a less-shaky footing.

Emerging Markets

Mexico’s central bank unanimously voted to cut its key interest rate to 4%, the lowest point since May 2016, leading economists to forecast more easing ahead as the country desperately needs stimulus. It’s only the second institution to reduce its benchmark this year.

South Africa’s rand, which marks its 60th anniversary this weekend, is accepted in informal and formal trade across most of southern Africa. It is legal tender in a common monetary area that includes Lesotho, Namibia and Eswatini -- all of which peg their currencies to the rand -- and it’s used in at least five other countries in the region.

World

Economic activity picked up or held steady in major economies in the first half of February, after a mid-January drop that was driven by high infection rates and stricter containment measures, according to Bloomberg Economics gauges.

For the global economy the path chosen on immigration will be an important determinant of growth potential. Bloomberg Economics calculations show that the U.S., Canada and Australia are the biggest winners from inbound immigration, and Nigeria, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Vietnam benefit most from foreign workers’ remittances.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.