Charting the Global Economy: U.K. Has Most Ground to Make Up

(Bloomberg) -- The U.K. may have posted its sharpest-ever economic rebound in the third quarter, but its recovery is trailing well behind rest of the world’s industrialized nations.

The coronavirus is also sapping demand for temporary workers in Europe and squelching consumer sentiment in the U.S. While economists’ forecasts show a less severe recession in Japan, this year’s downturns in the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia are deepening.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering insight into the latest developments in the global economy:

Europe

The U.K. economy expanded in the third quarter by the most on record, a rebound that still leaves Britain’s recovery trailing behind the world’s major industrialized nations.

The economic impact of the coronavirus has been very uneven, with the most vulnerable, the young and the low paid particularly affected. Temporary contract employment in the European Union plunged almost 11% during the lockdowns in the second quarter, compared with less than 3% for total employment.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that French activity outside industries directly impacted by the new lockdowns will drop only about 10% of the recovery realized by the third quarter, and that France’s gross domestic product will contract by 4.7% in the final three months of the year.

U.S.

Consumer sentiment unexpectedly declined to a three-month low in early November as an increase in Covid-19 infections and the election prompted Americans to reassess their outlooks for the economy and finances, figures from the University of Michigan showed. The data highlighted deflated attitudes among those identifying as Republicans, the party of President Donald Trump.

The number of Americans on state jobless benefit rolls have come down in recent months, but the details paint a more nuanced picture. Many are rolling onto a program called Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation, which provides extended assistance to those who have exhausted regular state benefits, while millions more are receiving Pandemic Unemployment Assistance -- a plan for self-employed workers.

Asia

Japan’s sharp economic rebound last quarter likely recovered only around half the growth lost during the pandemic.

Confrontations in trade, technology and geopolitics are threatening to spill over into the financial system, with the U.S. pondering sanctions against Chinese banks and China weighing the possibility of selling down its U.S. Treasury holdings. Tensions might be high, but Bloomberg Economics’ mapping of China’s financial links with the rest of the world suggests the chances of decoupling are low.

Fifteen Asia-Pacific nations including China aim to clinch the world’s largest free-trade agreement this weekend.

Emerging Markets

With the end of 2020 fast approaching, economists are revising their forecasts for economies across Asia. Recessions for countries like Thailand and Japan are now expected to be less severe than in previous surveys, while the Philippines, Malaysia and Indonesia will see their economic contractions deepen further, according to survey results compiled by Bloomberg in October.

Inflation sped up more than forecast in Mexico and Brazil as unrelenting food-price increases defy central bank plans to support virus-ravaged economies with low interest rates.

World

Bloomberg Economics’ alternative, high-frequency data show economic activity in a number of major advanced economies dropped steeply in the first weeks of November amid a stark rise in Covid-19 infections and expanding lockdown measures.

Calculations by Bloomberg Economics show that by 2050, world GDP would be $31 trillion smaller in a scenario that sees global ties splinter back to the level before China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001 versus one where the U.S. and other major economies commit to globalization.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.