Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

Any signs of a global rebound in economic data this month are coming with a constant caveat -- that the coronavirus crisis is far from over.

The lurking threat of resurgent outbreaks that could further disrupt activity and endanger growth around the world is a persisting worry for governments and policy makers trying to cushion the blow.

That backdrop was a recurring theme in charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week. Here’s a selection that offer insights into the latest developments in the global economy.

World

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

Citigroup Inc.’s global economic surprise index surged to a record high this month, surpassing the previous peak hit in 2009.

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

Global trade surged in June as governments started to reopen their economies from strict lockdowns earlier in the year, according to CPB World Trade Monitor. Even after the 7.6% jump in June, trade was down 12.5% in the second quarter, with the headline index at the lowest since 2014.

U.S. and Canada

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

The housing market has been a bright spot for America’s economic recovery, and data released this week were no exception. New-home sales in the U.S. surged to the highest since 2006 in July, as record-low borrowing costs and greater interest in suburban markets helped fuel demand.

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

Inequality in the Midwest is, by some measures, as high or higher than in any other part of the U.S. A 2019 report assembled by several progressive-leaning think tanks shows the region dominates lists of states with the greatest racial inequality in incomes, homeownership and incarceration.

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

Canada’s economy suffered its worst contraction on record in the second quarter, with gross domestic product plunging by an annualized 38.7% in the first three months through June, adding to an 8.2% drop in the first quarter.

Europe

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

Bloomberg Economics estimates 4 million U.K. jobs were still supported by the government’s furlough program at the start of August. With the scheme due to end in October, a wave of job losses in the fall remains a persisting danger.

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

Massive fiscal spending to help companies and households through the coronavirus pandemic has dealt Germany its first budget deficit since 2013. At 3.2%, the shortfall in the first half was also the steepest since the financial crisis a decade ago.

Asia

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

The almost 8-year-long era of Abenomics is drawing to a close as Japan’s prime minister bows out due to ill health -- with the economy back at square one.

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat


Business activity in India picked up slightly in July as a gradual improvement in services and exports showed the economy possibly moved past its worst in the previous quarter.

Emerging Markets

Charting the Global Economy: Rebound Signs Come With a Caveat

Economic activity fell faster and deeper in emerging markets than in advanced economies as the Covid-19 shock hit, and the recovery is proving slower and shallower. Activity in emerging markets excluding China remained 33% below the pre-virus level at the end of August, according to Bloomberg Economics.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.

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