Charting the Global Economy: Inflation Is Front and Center

(Bloomberg) -- The surge in commodities prices this year and improved economic prospects as the world recovers from the coronavirus pandemic are generating higher consumer inflation.

In the U.S., the closely watched consumer price index posted its biggest monthly advance in almost 12 years, smashing estimates. With unfilled job openings stretching to a record as demand grows for goods and services in the world’s largest economy, companies may have to boost pay.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

U.S.

Consumer prices climbed in April by the most since 2009, topping forecasts and intensifying the already-heated debate about how long inflationary pressures will last. Core prices, which exclude food and energy, registered the largest advance since 1982 on a pickup within industries hardest-hit by the pandemic.

The latest monthly survey by Bloomberg shows forecasters have raised their projections for several measures of inflationary pressures -- the consumer price index, the personal consumption expenditures price index and the PCE measure excluding food and fuel -- for each quarter through March 2022.

Job openings surged to a record high, consistent with a rapid increase in labor demand. The number of vacancies exceed hires by the most in data back to 2000.

Europe

The euro-area economy will grow more quickly this year than previously forecast as the region’s vaccination campaign gathers speed, fiscal support is rolled out and a strong global rebound helps exports.

The U.K. economy gained momentum in March as Britons geared up for the lifting of coronavirus restrictions.

Asia

Bloomberg Economics’ key takeaway from China’s once-a-decade census is that the population will likely peak by 2025 -- much earlier than officials had expected -- which could wipe out the demographic dividend that had helped propel the economic ascent of the world’s most populous nation.

Australia unveiled a big-spending budget that aims to run the economy hot, joining the U.S. and Europe with a fiscal-monetary tandem that seeks to drive unemployment down to levels rarely seen in the past 50 years.

Asian cities face the greatest risk from environmental issues including air pollution and natural disasters, according to a report by research firm Verisk Maplecroft.

Emerging Markets

The tax proposal that sparked Colombia’s protests was bound to fail when the country’s economic recovery has been shaky, poverty has risen, and the middle class has shrunk.

Global remittances showed surprising strength in 2020 despite dire projections, as heavy government stimulus spending put cash in immigrants’ pockets to send home.

World

The world economy pushes into the second quarter with reopening across the U.S. and Europe set to drive growth of 1.4% from the previous quarter. That’s the latest signal from Bloomberg Economics nowcasts, which bring together close to 200 data series across 18 countries to provide a high-frequency read on the recovery.

Inheritance taxes could make a return to the political agenda after decades of declining use as governments worldwide try to repair public finances and address widening inequality after the pandemic. Levies on inherited wealth dropped sharply in the 1970s, and now account for only 0.5% of tax revenues in countries where they’re still used, the OECD said.

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