Charting the Global Economy: Covid-19 Pandemic’s Toll Deepens

(Bloomberg) -- The steepest-ever declines in U.S. retail sales and industrial production and record-high economic uncertainty in Europe highlight the rapid deterioration in business activity caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering insight into the latest developments in the global economy:

U.S.

Sales at retailers and restaurants fell 16.4% in April from the prior month, almost double the 8.3% drop in March which was previously the worst in data back to 1992. With most Americans stuck at home and unemployment that the highest since the Great Depression era, people sharply reduced their spending.

An index of output at the nation’s factories, mines and utilities decreased 11.2% in April, the steepest monthly drop in the 101-year history of the Federal Reserve’s series. Manufacturing production plummeted by a record 13.7% amid declines in all major industries.

The politicization of Americans’ views about the Covid-19 outbreak, including whether to wear a mask, extends to small businesses: Firms in the Northeast and in Democratic-leaning states are more anxious about the future than their peers around the country, with many expecting economic pain from the pandemic to last longer than six months.

Europe

U.K. government borrowing looks on course to exceed 300 billion pounds ($366 billion) in the current fiscal year, according to the latest forecasts from the nation’s fiscal watchdog.

Economic uncertainty in the euro area has soared to record levels in the face of the pandemic and stringent containment measures, with Bloomberg Economics’ uncertainty gauge surpassing four standard deviations above its long-run average in the last couple of months.

Asia

China’s industrial output increased in April for the first time since the coronavirus outbreak, adding to early signs of a recovery that economists cautioned would be slow and challenging.

Japan’s economy has slipped from sales-tax hangover into deep recession, official data is set to show on Monday, with worse to come even as coronavirus restrictions on activity are gradually lifted.

Australia is the most China-reliant economy in the developed world, leaving it vulnerable to blowback from Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s calls for an independent probe into the origins of the coronavirus.

Emerging Markets

The Paris Club is confident China will take part in a global drive to pause debt payments for poor countries that urgently need funds to battle the coronavirus pandemic.

Russians are running out of money after six weeks of lockdown and minimal government support, adding to pressure that pushed President Vladimir Putin to start reopening the economy even as the infection total surges to the second-highest in the world.

World

The OECD’s indicator of future turning points for the global economy plunged to unprecedented levels in April as output, consumption and confidence slumped when governments locked down activity to contain the coronavirus outbreak.

Global central bankers are echoing Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s latest dismissal of negative interest rates, just as investors bet more of them will be dragged into the policy amid the coronavirus crisis.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.