Charting the Economy: China Grows Again, Rest of World Struggles

(Bloomberg) -- China says its economy is expanding again, though the pace of growth is vulnerable to shaky rebounds among its trading partners. A pickup in coronavirus cases is weighing on U.S. sentiment, while governments in America and Europe debate further efforts to prop up ailing labor markets.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering insight into the latest developments in the global economy:

U.S.

Consumers turned decidedly more pessimistic in July, defying forecasts for further a pickup, as the resurgent coronavirus nearly wiped out emerging confidence around reopenings. The downturn in sentiment signals spending may falter after two solid months.

Retail sales exceeded forecasts for a second straight month in June as more businesses reopened and expanded jobless benefits padded the wallets of the unemployed.

Europe

The number of hours worked in the U.K. economy fell the most on the record in the coronavirus lockdown, underlining the risk facing the labor market as government income support is phased out.

Bloomberg Economics estimates that 7 million full-time equivalent jobs are furloughed in the euro area’s four largest economies: If those workers roll off retention schemes into unemployment, joblessness could leap by almost 6 percentage points on average.

Asia

China’s economic recovery is vulnerable to losing momentum as key trading partners from Japan to the U.S. struggle with resurgences of the deadly coronavirus and resort to fresh measures to control its spread.

The Bank of Japan says the economic fallout from the coronavirus will force another key measure of inflationary pressure to turn negative for the time being. The central bank projected Japan’s output gap, a gauge of supply and demand, will soon fall below zero for the first time since 2016, although it didn’t give a specific number.

Emerging Markets

Russia is already looking for ways to pare back its frugal pandemic stimulus package even as infections continue to climb by more than 6,000 a day. Next-year’s outlays will be below this year’s planned 23 trillion rubles ($325 billion).

Saudi Arabia has removed two million people from an assistance program meant to soften the blow of its economic overhaul, stirring frustration among some during the worst downturn in decades.

World

Americans would be around three times more like to save rather than spend an unexpected cash windfall, rising to more than four times in the U.K., according to YouGov’s global Economic Recovery Tracker, which is based on 27,681 respondents in 26 countries.

Since 1950, the global population has increased between 1% and 2% a year, and is likely to peak in 2064 at around 9.7 billion before declining to about 8.8 billion by the end of the century -- some 2 billion lower than previous estimates, researchers said in The Lancet. By the middle of this century, 151 countries are forecast to have fewer children than in their parents’ generation. By 2100, the number is predicted to increase to 183 countries.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.