Charting Global Economy: U.S. Demand Spurs Export-Led Nations
(Bloomberg) -- The U.S. economy continues to press forward, with growing numbers of manufacturers expanding and boosting the prospects of export-driven economies such as South Korea and China.
With American producers scrambling for materials and components, the merchandise trade deficit hit a record in February. Household and business demand is being fueled in part by mounting Covid-19 vaccinations.
At the same time, Europe’s vaccine programs have been beset by delays and supply shortfalls as well as more lockdowns.
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:
Demand from American companies and consumers has been propelling merchandise imports to record highs, overwhelming the nation’s ports.
Freshly released March data show manufacturers continued to pour on the momentum as the first quarter draws to a close -- despite supply-chain woes and surging materials costs that are driving the inflation debate.
German manufacturing increased at a record pace in March, leading an economic revival in Europe that saw French activity stabilize.
One reason to expect a quick U.K. recovery is the government’s decision to extend the furlough program by five months to the end of September. That will prevent a large increase in unemployment in the spring as the recovery takes hold while giving gross domestic product more time to gather momentum before the program expires, according to Bloomberg Economics.
Most people 50 or older in the European Union could be protected by a first Covid-19 vaccine dose by mid-May if governments are ready to deviate from the protocol of administering second doses within three to four weeks of the first, according to research by Bloomberg Economics. That’s a month earlier than if they stick to the rigid two-dose time frame, but still depends on health systems rising to the challenge of nearly tripling the current vaccination rate.
The U.S. fiscal boost will bring huge spillovers for the global economy, especially China, the world’s biggest exporter.
The economic hit from excluding foreign spectators from attending the Tokyo Olympic Games is a price worth paying if it means the event can take place this year, according to economists.
South Korea’s economic recovery is making more headway, with the country’s export-led rebound showing signs of broadening to domestic consumption.
The spillover effects from Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion stimulus on the rest of the world may be smaller than many expect. Countries with a high share of trade invoicing and borrowing in dollars may even see a drag as a strengthening U.S. currency dents competitiveness and adds to financing costs.
Analysis by Bloomberg Economics reveals that, in general, spillovers are most positive for advanced economies. For many emerging markets they are negative -- and in some cases significantly negative.
A slow economic recovery threatens to turn more companies in the industries worst hit by the pandemic into so-called zombies, according to a report by the Bank for International Settlements.
The rise of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies has prompted the greatest push yet among central banks to develop their own digital currencies.
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