Charting Global Economy: Firm U.S. Payrolls, Europe’s Struggles

(Bloomberg) -- U.S. employment growth and manufacturing were firmer than projected on the eve of the presidential election and despite rising Covid-19 cases. Europe is facing a more moderate recovery in 2021 as policy makers weigh a new round of stimulus.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week, offering insight into the latest developments in the global economy:

U.S.

The labor market strengthened in October, defying expectations for more subdued gains amid an intensifying pandemic and lack of additional fiscal relief. Progress is being sustained as household savings help fuel spending and business investment rebounds.

Manufacturing expanded in October at the fastest pace in more than two years, fueled by the strongest orders growth since early 2004 and a pickup in employment. The figures follow a report last week that pointed to firmer consumer spending and income gains in September and suggest economic growth could be stronger than forecast this quarter.

Control of the Senate may not be known until at least Jan. 5, as both Georgia Senate races look likely to head for a runoff. This matters for 2021 U.S. gross domestic product, as it widens a narrow path to a Democratic sweep of Congress and the presidency. Accompanying stimulus, which could top $2 trillion, implies growth above 5% year-over-year, compared to Bloomberg Economics’ current baseline of 3.5%.

Europe

The U.K. government and central bank unleashed a fresh wave of stimulus into the struggling economy, acting in conjunction and more aggressively than predicted as the coronavirus forces another lockdown.

Europe’s economy, freshly battered by coronavirus restrictions, is facing a sluggish recovery next year that leaves it open to rising company failures and long-term unemployment.

Asia

President Xi Jinping is signaling his long-term vision for the Chinese economy likely requires it to expand at a average pace of less than 5% a year, well below the historical trend over the past 30 years.

Australia’s central bank cut interest rates and announced purchases of longer-dated bonds to complement its yield curve control program for shorter-length maturities as it seeks to drive a rapid economic recovery.

Emerging Markets

Millions of Colombians can no longer afford to feed themselves properly after lockdown measures devastated the economy.

World

Alternative, high-frequency data compiled by Bloomberg Economics show that economic activity in advanced economies weakened in October amid renewed outbreaks of the coronavirus, and the latest readings suggest the downtrend continued at the beginning of November, particularly in major European countries.

©2020 Bloomberg L.P.