Bets That Fed Rate Cuts Will Dent Dollar May Prove ‘Dangerous’
The U.S. is continuing to outperform other major economies and has one of the highest-yielding currencies among developed markets.
(Bloomberg) -- Betting that interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve will hurt the dollar could prove perilous.
That’s the view of T. Rowe Price’s Quentin Fitzsimmons who points out that the greenback has retreated only on one occasion during the past four U.S. rate-cutting cycles, bucking conventional expectations that looser monetary policy leads to a weaker currency.
“Going underweight the dollar because the Federal Reserve is expected to cut could be a dangerous game,” Fitzsimmons said in a note. “There are many other factors needed to be taken into consideration.”
Intercontinental Exchange Inc.’s gauge of the greenback on Monday surged to its highest level since 2017, while a separate Bloomberg dollar index is approaching this year’s highs. The U.S. currency is heading for the best quarterly gain since June 2018 as it outperforms most of its Group-of-10 peers this year.
The U.S. is continuing to outperform other major economies and has one of the highest-yielding currencies among developed markets. These are reasons to consider sticking with the dollar, the portfolio manager said. Hedge funds echo the same optimism and Commodity Futures Trading Commission figures indicate that they are the most bullish on the greenback in three months.
The currency has remained resilient in recent months amid the U.S.-China trade war, slowing global growth, geopolitical tension in the Middle East and the onset of a U.S. political impeachment inquiry.
“The dollar remains king for investors looking for safety,” Fitzsimmons wrote. “This is unlikely to change.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Susanne Barton in New York at swalker33@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Benjamin Purvis at bpurvis@bloomberg.net, Debarati Roy
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