Asia Faces Rate-Cut Pressure to Curb Fallout From Virus
India -- which on the weekend announced a budget that underwhelmed those hoping for more stimulus -- also sets policy Thursday.
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Central banks in Asia face increasing calls to cut interest rates as they jump into action against a spiraling coronavirus crisis that’s hammering tourism, travel and confidence across the region.
The People’s Bank of China trimmed some interest rates Monday and injected massive liquidity into the financial system to shore up slumping markets. Indonesia’s central bank said it was taking “bold” steps to bolster the nation’s currency and bonds. Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda said Tuesday the bank won’t hesitate to take action to cope with the virus’s economic impact if it becomes necessary.
Asia -- set to see the worst spillovers from the virus due to its dependence on Chinese demand and tourists -- boasts a handful of central banks that have space to ease monetary policy in a world of rock-bottom interest rates.
Australia was first up, with the central bank keeping interest rates unchanged Tuesday, saying “it is too early to determine how long-lasting the impact will be” on China’s economy from the virus outbreak. The Reserve Bank of Australia will continue to monitor developments and remains prepared to ease monetary policy if needed, it said.
Next up is Thailand, where there are growing calls for a move Wednesday, but no consensus estimate so far that a cut is coming. By contrast, a reduction is expected Thursday in the Philippines, which has reported the first death from the coronavirus outside China.
Travel Curbs
India -- which on the weekend announced a budget that underwhelmed those hoping for more stimulus -- also sets policy Thursday. A recent spike in inflation is expected to keep the central bank sidelined, but some economists think it will have to act at coming meetings to spur a faltering economy.
Read More: ‘Wild Card’ Virus Adds Uncertainty to Central Bank Outlook
Growth risks are accelerating as China enforces strict travel curbs and airlines around the world suspend service to the mainland. Bloomberg Economics estimates that even if the virus outbreak were severe but short-lived, China’s first-quarter GDP growth would hit a record low 4.5%. UBS Group AG’s China economist, Tao Wang, predicts a slump to 3.8%.
“The downside risks to growth have increased substantially in the short-term, especially for the more tourism-oriented countries like Thailand,” said Priyanka Kishore, head of India and Southeast Asia research at Oxford Economics Ltd. in Singapore.
Manufacturing Falters
Even before the virus spiral, manufacturing gauges signaled a shaky start to the year as the U.S.-China trade agreement failed to boost sentiment. South Korea’s purchasing managers index -- a key barometer of global demand -- fell to 49.8 in January from 50.1 in December.
In Thailand, restrictions on Chinese travel have hammered the tourism industry, which makes up about one-fifth of the economy. Growth was already taking a hit from drought and government spending delays, with the central bank last week signaling it may cut its 2.8% forecast for economic growth this year.
“The central bank needs to do something to help shore up confidence now,” said Burin Adulwattana, chief economist at Bangkok Bank Pcl. “We used to think the revenue stream from tourism will help drive the economy this year while other engines are weak. Now that engine is gone. One cut may not be enough this year depending on the severity of the pandemic.”
The Bank of Korea, which next meets on Feb. 27, has previously acted in response to a virus outbreak. In June 2015 it lowered rates during the MERS outbreak that ended up claiming the lives of more than 30 people in Korea. However, there was a combination of other economic factors favoring policy easing at the time.
Market Slump
Bank Indonesia, which cut interest rates four times last year, stepped up intervention in the bond and currency markets Monday to stem losses in the rupiah. Deputy Governor Dody Budi Waluyo said the bank is open to further policy action as it assesses the impact of the virus outbreak, and “future utilization of easing space will be carried out at the right timing.”
David Sumual, chief economist of PT Bank Central Asia in Jakarta, said if the situation worsens, “the government may opt to stimulate the economy via a more aggressive fiscal policy, since doubts remain over the efficacy of monetary easing amid tepid loan demand.”
In Singapore, which has confirmed 18 cases of coronavirus, authorities are bracing for an economic hit that may be worse than the SARS outbreak in 2003. The government has halted travel from China, where about 20% of the city-state’s international visitors come from. The Feb. 18 budget will likely provide support measures for industries like tourism and transport, and economists -- including from JP Morgan Chase & Co. and Citigroup Inc. -- see a higher risk that the Monetary Authority of Singapore will ease policy in April.
--With assistance from Siegfrid Alegado, Anirban Nag and Paul Jackson.
To contact the reporters on this story: Enda Curran in hong kong at ecurran8@bloomberg.net;Suttinee Yuvejwattana in Bangkok at suttinee1@bloomberg.net;Karlis Salna in Jakarta at ksalna@bloomberg.net
To contact the editors responsible for this story: Nasreen Seria at nseria@bloomberg.net, ;Malcolm Scott at mscott23@bloomberg.net, Michael S. Arnold
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