After 32 Rate Cuts in 2019, Traders Say Many More Are Coming

(Bloomberg) --

Central banks have delivered 32 interest-rate cuts globally this year as a worsening U.S.-China trade war drags down global economic growth. Swap markets suggest we’re not even at the halfway mark for cuts yet.

Policy makers have reduced rates by a cumulative 13.85%, according to data from the Bank of International Settlements that track 38 central banks. Argentina was excluded from the calculation due to how it manages money supply.

Traders are expecting much more. Over the next 12 months, interest-rate swap markets have priced in around 58 more rate cuts, assuming central banks maintain their current trajectories in easing. Those cuts could total another 16% in global reductions.

Here’s a look at just a few of the larger economies:

With rates falling almost everywhere, and bond yields following, it’s little wonder that yield-hunting behavior is dominating global fixed-income markets. The result is investors are being forced into longer-maturities and to take on greater credit risks in order to earn returns.

To contact the reporter on this story: Stephen Spratt in Hong Kong at sspratt3@bloomberg.net

To contact the editors responsible for this story: Tan Hwee Ann at hatan@bloomberg.net, Liau Y-Sing

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