ADB Keeps Developing Asia 2018 GDP Forecast at 6%; 2019 5.8%

(Bloomberg) -- The Asian Development Bank keeps Developing Asia’s 2018 growth forecast at 6 percent in its latest Asian Development Outlook Update.

  • China growth forecast maintained at 6.6% y/y
  • South Korea growth forecast cut to 2.9% y/y from 3%
  • India growth forecast maintained at 7.3% y/y
  • Indonesia growth forecast cut to 5.2% y/y from 5.3%
  • Thailand growth forecast raised to 4.5% y/y from 4%
  • Malaysia growth forecast cut to 5% y/y from 5.3%
  • Philippines growth forecast cut to 6.4% y/y from 6.8%
  • "The biggest risk to continued growth comes from the disruption of international production linkages caused by a further escalation of trade tensions, but Asia’s growth should remain resilient to the direct effects of the trade measures taken to date,"  Yasuyuki Sawada, ADB’s chief economist says
2019201920182018
Annual GDP Growth RevisedPreviousRevisedPrevious2017
Developing Asia5.8%5.9%6.0%6.0%6.1%
 Central Asia4.2%4.2%4.1%4.0%4.3%
   Armenia4.5%4.2%5.3%4.0%7.5%
   Azerbaijan2.0%2.0%1.7%1.7%0.1%
   Georgia5.0%4.7%4.9%4.5%5.0%
   Kazakhstan3.9%3.5%3.7%3.2%4.1%
   Kyrgyz Republic4.0%4.0%2.5%3.5%4.6%
   Tajikistan6.5%6.5%6.0%6.0%7.1%
   Turkmenistan6.0%6.7%6.2%6.5%6.5%
   Uzbekistan5.0%5.6%4.9%5.5%5.3%
 East Asia5.7%5.8%6.0%6.0%6.3%
   China6.3%6.4%6.6%6.6%6.9%
   Hong Kong, China3.0%3.0%3.7%3.2%3.8%
   South Korea2.8%2.9%2.9%3.0%3.1%
   Mongolia6.1%4.3%6.4%3.8%5.3%
   Taipei, China2.8%2.8%3.0%2.9%2.9%
 South Asia7.2%7.2%7.0%7.0%6.5%
   Afghanistan2.5%2.5%2.2%2.5%2.5%
   Bangladesh7.5%7.2%7.9%7.0%7.3%
   Bhutan7.1%7.4%6.7%7.1%7.5%
   India7.6%7.6%7.3%7.3%6.7%
   Maldives6.4%6.8%6.7%6.7%6.9%
   Nepal5.5%5.5%5.9%4.9%7.4%
   Pakistan4.8%5.1%5.8%5.6%5.4%
   Sri Lanka4.5%4.8%3.8%4.2%3.1%
 Southeast Asia5.2%5.2%5.1%5.2%5.2%
   Brunei Darussalam2.0%2.0%2.0%1.5%1.3%
   Cambodia7.0%7.0%7.0%7.0%6.9%
   Indonesia5.3%5.3%5.2%5.3%5.1%
   Laos6.9%7.0%6.6%6.8%6.9%
   Malaysia4.8%5.0%5.0%5.3%5.9%
   Myanmar7.0%7.2%6.6%6.8%6.8%
   Philippines6.7%6.9%6.4%6.8%6.7%
   Singapore2.9%2.9%3.1%3.1%3.6%
   Thailand4.3%4.1%4.5%4.0%3.9%
   Vietnam6.8%6.8%6.9%7.1%6.8%
 The Pacific3.1%3.0%1.1%2.2%2.4%
   Cook Islands3.0%3.0%3.5%3.5%3.5%
   Fiji3.3%3.3%3.6%3.6%3.9%
   Kiribati2.3%2.3%2.3%2.3%2.5%
   Marshall Islands2.5%2.5%2.5%2.5%3.6%
   Micronesia2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%2.0%
   Nauru0.5%0.5%-3.0%-4.0%4.0%
   Palau1.0%3.0%1.0%3.0%-3.7%
   Papua New Guinea3.0%2.7%0.5%1.8%3.0%
   Samoa2.0%2.0%0.5%0.5%2.5%
   Solomon Islands3.0%3.0%3.2%3.0%3.2%
   Timor-Leste4.5%5.5%0.6%3.0%-5.3%
   Tonga1.9%1.9%-0.3%-0.3%2.8%
   Tuvalu3.5%3.0%3.8%3.0%3.2%
   Vanuatu3.0%3.0%3.2%3.2%3.5%

Source: Asian Development Outlook 2018 Update

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