A Synchronized Slowdown Is Looming: World Economy This Week
Here’s our weekly wrap of what’s going on in the world economy.
(Bloomberg) --
The risk of synchronized slowdown in global growth as Europe wobbles, China sputters and stock markets around the world keep crumbling dominated the world economy this week. Adding to the gloomy picture, emerging markets are under pressure and central banks face fresh challenges to their independence.
Here’s our weekly wrap of what’s going on in the world economy.
Slowing Growth
The trade war is starting to hurt China’s economy for good, with manufacturing output on the verge of contraction and export orders at a two-and-a-half low. The government in Beijing is prepared to respond with further stimulus but this may not be enough. Taiwan and Korea are also faltering, while U.S. President Donald Trump now wants to reach an agreement on trade with Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 nations summit in Argentina later this month and has asked key U.S. officials to begin drafting potential terms.
The chill is also hitting Europe, where the pace of growth halved in the third quarter even as inflation accelerated. For now the European Central Bank may put a brave face on the data but companies are unconvinced. With Italy stagnating and Germany set to do the same, only Spain remains as a bright spot. Emerging markets ended October in the red. This leaves the U.S. to drive global growth. Consumers haven’t been this upbeat since the start of the millennium and workers are enjoying the biggest leap in pay since 2009. To finance the tax cuts and spending hikes the Trump administration is planning to increase debt sales above the levels seen during the great financial crisis, and economists expect U.S. growth will moderate in 2019. For now, though, Trump is going into the midterms with the strongest economy since Lyndon Johnson over 50 years ago – even if only history will tell if this is real or just favorable optics.
Read More:
- Why Australia Will Struggle to Escape the Next Global Slowdown
- Mexico Grows More Than Expected Third Quarter on Services Pickup
- Canada’s Economy Expands for 7th Month on Oil Extraction
- What Draghi Could Do If the Euro-Area Economic Slowdown Deepens
- Russian Government Intervenes to Tame Record Fuel Prices
Central-Bank Divergence
The Federal Reserve never had it so good on inflation but labor costs heating up set the stage for more rate hikes. Ironically, the divergence between the U.S. and China is contributing to weakness of the yuan, which fell to the lowest level in a decade. The Bank of Japan stayed the course on monetary policy as inflation continues to slip out of reach, but there are changes in the way it buys bonds. The ECB is still on track to end bond-buying this year – yet it won’t raise rates much above zero before the next recession and one of its newest policy makers wants to shake up the way it looks at its inflation target. In emerging markets, South Africa’s central bank sees higher rates, while Thailand may have to delay the first increase in borrowing costs since 2011.
Read More:
- Czechs Signal Rate Pause After Leading Europe’s Tightening Push
- Polish Inflation at Five-Month Low Bolsters Interest-Rate Pause
- Investment Slowdown May Be Euro Area’s Next Economic Headache
- Turkish Central Banker Won’t Say If Inflation Has Peaked
- Chile’s Jobless Fall Provides Little Relief for the Central Bank
Political Pressures
With a Brexit deal once again in sight, Bank of England Governor Mark Carney said the central bank is ready to respond, though his warning that a no-deal outcome would mean rate hikes isn’t convincing economists. And as the world prepares to bid good bye to Angela Merkel, her economic record is impressive – at least when it comes to unemployment.
Elsewhere in the world, the tensions between populist politicians and central bankers over their independence continued. In India the government has tried to defuse tensions after threatening to use special powers. In Italy, the governor and the finance minister sparred over the populist government’s spending plans – and even a Bundesbank economist weighed in with a radical plan to halve the country’s debt. In the U.S., Fed Chairman Jerome Powell may find that Wall Street is his best insurance against Trump’s barbs. In Brazil, the election of Jair Bolsonaro has sparked a market rally and his economic top aide promises business-friendly policies and a blunt style matching that of his boss. A new central bank chief could come as early as next week. And hear all about corporate behemoths, changing banks and China’s plans for dominating global manufacturing, in our New Economy podcast.
Read More:
- Saudi Budget Deficit Narrows as Oil, Non-Oil Revenues Rise
- Automakers Brace for U.S. Sales Slipping Into the Red for 2018
- Denmark Will Ask Europe to Impose Fresh Sanctions on Iran
- Euro Bid to Challenge King Dollar Collides With Political Risk
- Italy's Economic Horror Show Begins Here: Ferdinando Giugliano
Weekend Reading
- The New Economics of Inequality Shaping Policy: Stephanie Flanders
- I, Human: Why New Blue-Collar Jobs Will Survive the Rise of AI
- China 2025 Plan Remains a Stumbling Block as Trump Meeting Looms
- As Tobacco Wanes, a Virginia Farmer Wants to Harvest His Uranium
- The Get-Rich-Quick Short That Almost Killed a German Soccer Team
- Signs Mount That Switzerland’s Economic Boom May Be Short-Lived
- Singapore Ousts Hong Kong as No. 1 for Luxury Home-Price Gains
- EU Is Said to Revise Plan to Fix WTO in Bid to Get U.S. on Board
Chart of the Week
To contact the editor responsible for this story: Zoe Schneeweiss at zschneeweiss@bloomberg.net
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